Neel Kashkari, economist and politician who is the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis said recently, [according to zerohedge.com](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1560333275759009793?t=OtYcOw4X8GgByAgX3UCgfQ&s=35) that "IT DOES NOT FEEL LIKE A RECESSION NOW". 

Well, the man might be right, you know... I don't live in the US, but when I look around I don't see any sign of a recession *yet* either. There are indeed a lot of signs of high inflation, the purchasing power of our national currency being literally crushed for the past few months, but no sense of recession yet. 

![th.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/fRu6Rg2.jpg)
[image source](https://presearch.com/images?q=bart%20and%20son%20%22so%20far%22%20meme)

But what is a recession?

>A recession is a significant, widespread, and prolonged downturn in economic activity. Because recessions often last six months or more, one popular rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarters of decline in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) constitute a recession.
[source](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp)

Tbh I was expecting to see my country, Romania, already in a full-blown recession by now, but surprisingly we're actually not. Even the data regarding Romania's 2022 GDP is looking... well, quite decent I'd say. 

>The Romanian GDP grew by 5.3% yoy in the second quarter of 2022, beating market consensus of a 3.5% growth, following a 6.4% gain in the previous period. It was the fifth straight quarter of expansion in the GDP, amid a lifting Covid-19 restrictions, preliminary estimates showed. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the economy advanced by 2.1%, after a 5.1% rise in the first quarter of 2022. In the first half of 2022, the economy expanded by 5.8% from a year earlier.
[source](https://tradingeconomics.com/romania/gdp-growth-annual)

![romaniagdpgrowthannual.png](https://i.imgur.com/EGOLm2K.png)

According to the data shared by [trading economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/romania/gdp) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Romania is somewhere around 280 points and is forecasted to climb as high as 300 in 2023, and just to put everything into perspective we had a GDP of 172 points in 2012 and 177 in 2014. 

No signs of recession, sir. Or better said... there are no signs of a recession **so far**.

I was talking with a friend today and she was telling me that she was looking lately for some accommodation at a ski resort for the winter holidays... Believe it or not but she didn't find anything free atm... And it's mid-August... 

Worth mentioning is also the fact that despite the price of fuel being insanely high imo, traffic is no different than it was just one year ago. Now, I'm not an economist, far from wearing that stigma, I'm just a simple-minded man searching for clues in proving wrong my biases, and believe me there's no clue that I could find showing that *we are currently in a recession*. 

The situation in my country is that most of the inhabitants have basically no financial education and they don't even see a potential problem for the economy in the future. Most of them just see all this shit with prices skyrocketing as being something temporary... Just like a bump in the road that doesn't necessarily have to break the wheels. 

I really hope shit won't hit the fan, but I doubt we're gonna get out of the inflation tunnel without a recession. Or I am just overly pessimistic... What do you think?

*Thanks for your attention,*
*Adrian*     

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