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COVID19: A Controlled Study

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0.000 HBD
COVID19: A Controlled Study
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<p>The COVID19 era is characterized among other things by lockdowns in <br/>countries around the world and in US states, imposed by their <br/>governments, attempting to limit movement, activities and commerce of <br/>individuals and businesses, for the stated goal of limiting COVID19 <br/>incidence and mortality.</p>
<p><img src="https://images.hive.blog/DQmcVU5Ja4KvUhYeFH5KqCA75ucPNK5d99N11UE42pKFqps/image.png" alt="image.png"/></p>
<p>In this paper, I examine CDC data regarding the COVID19 deaths in US <br/>states that did not have lockdowns (the control group), herein “free <br/>states,” compared to neighboring states that did have lockdowns (the <br/>experimental group), herein “locked states.”  I examined neighboring <br/>states that share long borders, rather than touching at only corners or <br/>short segments, and then I examine neighboring states, free vs lockdown,<br/> that have similar population density.</p>
<p>The control group showed a lower percentage of COVID19 deaths <br/>compared to total deaths than the experimental group.  This finding was <br/>consistent over the week prior to and including the date of this <br/>writing, May 18 to 27, 2020.  CDC states’ data was updated daily over <br/>this time, except on the weekend.  The data in this paper reflects the <br/>latest data as of the date of this writing: 5/27/2020.</p>
<p>Moreover, deaths from all causes, as percent of expected deaths for <br/>this time of year, are lower in free states than in neighboring lockdown<br/> states.</p>
<p>			<br/><br/><br/>		</p>
<p><strong>Introduction</strong></p>
<p>Effectiveness of universal quarantine in disease control is apart <br/>from questions of grave concern regarding civil liberties violations, as<br/> well as breaking with the historical precedent of quarantining only <br/>sick people.  Any “quarantine” of well people, in fact all of a given <br/>population, was previously known only by its more familiar name, martial<br/> law.</p>
<p>Political events created a control group of free US states, as well <br/>as an experimental group of US states that did lock down.  I compare <br/>these two groups in this study with respect to COVID19 mortality and <br/>overall mortality.</p>
<p>For the purpose of working with CDC data, this paper does not <br/>challenge the popular  assumption that COVID19 is a unique infectious <br/>agent, even though researchers have not agreed on distinct features of <br/>this particular coronavirus.  Nor have researchers yet satisfied Koch’s <br/>postulates for isolation, purification and verification of this virus.</p>
<p>The COVID19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR) = 0.26% in the US.<a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_edn1">[1]</a> <br/> That is, approximately one of every 385 individuals who are infected <br/>with COVID19 die of the same disease.  Data from the CDC in late May <br/>2020 show that COVID19 cases and fatalities peaked in mid-April 2020.<a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_edn2">[2]</a><br/> Thereafter, daily COVID19 deaths and hospitalizations declined steadily<br/> through the first three weeks of May 2020, by 2.7% and 3.2% per day <br/>respectively.<a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_edn3">[3]</a> <a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_edn4">[4]</a></p>
<p>All of this information must be strongly tempered by the nature of <br/>what is commonly called “the COVID19 test.” It has been assumed, almost <br/>with religious certainty, that this reverse transcriptase, polymerase <br/>chain reaction manufacturing technique is the only or best way to test <br/>for COVID19 infection.  In fact, that technique was not designed for <br/>diagnostic purposes at all, and its designer, Dr. Kary Mullis, had <br/>specifically cautioned not to use it to diagnose infectious disease.<a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_edn5">[5]</a> <br/> A further problem with the COVID19 test has been the assigning of an <br/>arbitrary number of iterations to produce a positive result.  This has <br/>led to magnified errors with each iteration, such that the RT-PCR test <br/>applied to COVID19 has been found to have an 80% false positive rate, <br/>making it nearly useless for this application.<a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_edn6">[6]</a> <br/> Despite these problems, “the COVID19 test” was adopted quickly in the <br/>US and around the world.  Suspicion of test results have been rife since<br/> the beginning, famously highlighted when the President of Tanzania and <br/>Chemistry PhD John Magufuli submitted specimens from a goat and a piece <br/>of fruit, each submitted for testing with human names.  Both samples <br/>were then declared positive for COVID19 infection.<a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_edn7">[7]</a></p>
<p>Much criticism has been made of testing methods and declared values <br/>for incidence and mortality.  Notably, many microbiologists and <br/>physicians have publicly criticized the daily US COVID19 death counts <br/>announced by a portion of the US media, which have exceeded the CDC’s <br/>daily US COVID19 death counts by over 20,000 deaths on each day (76,874 <br/>by the CDC<a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_edn8">[8]</a>, but “nearly 100,000” by CNN<a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_edn9">[9]</a>, both updated today, 5/27/2020).</p>
<p>Much concern has focused on the economic devastation of lockdown, a <br/>unique historical experience, unprecedented and unlike any of our <br/>ancestors’ approach to disease.  Never in human history have well people<br/> been quarantined on a large scale, for the purpose of disease <br/>prevention.  Martial law had in the past been acknowledged as <br/>politically, not medically, motivated.</p>
<p>As a result of this quarantine, in the United States, 11.1% of <br/>Americans lost their jobs in only 7 weeks, now 14.7% of the active US <br/>labor force.    By comparison, in the Great Depression, 10.4% of <br/>Americans lost their jobs over a 4-year time span, 1929 to 1933, 25.6% <br/>of the then active labor force. <a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_edn10">[10]</a> <a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_edn11">[11]</a>  Unemployment is known to have public health consequences.</p>
<p>There were, remarkably, six US states in this COVID19 era where <br/>lockdown was not ordered by the governors.  The other 44 states had <br/>lockdown.  I examine the differences in COVID19 mortality among them.  <br/>The 6 free states provide a useful control group.  Their neighboring <br/>states that did have lockdown provide a useful experimental group for us<br/> to study.</p>
<p><strong>Methods</strong></p>
<p>The states that did not have lockdown imposed by their state <br/>governors in early 2020, while the rest of the US did, herein, “free <br/>states,” are:</p>
<p>Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming, herein AR, IA, NE, ND, SD and WY.</p>
<p>Data for Wyoming is not updated at the CDC at this writing, so I will exclude WY.</p>
<p>The free states share long borders with the following lockdown states respectively:</p>
<p>Mississippi, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin, <br/>Illinois, Kansas, Colorado, and Montana, herein MS, LA, OK, MO, MN, WI, <br/>IL, KS, CO, MT.</p>
<p>So I compare data from:</p>
<p>AR with MS, LA, OK &amp; MO,</p>
<p>IA with MN, WI, MO &amp; IL,</p>
<p>NE with KS &amp; CO, and</p>
<p>ND &amp; SD with MT &amp; MN.</p>
<p>And then, because they have exactly the same population density, 57 <br/>people per square mile as of 2018, I separately compare Arkansas with <br/>its neighbor Oklahoma, as well as another comparison of states with <br/>similar population density.</p>
<p>Because of the inappropriate nature of “the COVID19 test,” it is <br/>especially important to also compare all deaths in free states vs <br/>lockdown states.  I include that analysis as well.<strong><br/><br/></strong></p>
<p><strong>Results</strong></p>
<p>Table 1 below shows percentages derived from CDC data, updated as of the day of this writing.</p>
<p><strong>Table 1</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://images.hive.blog/DQmP1ryUaQR1WY2qqdmgmnf6NZMZz3L9ztj8DSpiRrSTU3j/image.png" alt="image.png"/></p>
<p>We can see that COVID19 deaths, as a percentage of total deaths, are <br/>over 3 times higher, on average, in locked down states than in free <br/>states.</p>
<p>Table 2, is the May 27, 2020 CDC table of state-by-state mortality, in 3 parts, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/">https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/</a><br/> from which the calculations in Table 1 were derived.  Those <br/>calculations may be verified by simple division, Column 2 / Column 3 of <br/>this CDC table.</p>
<p><strong>Table 2</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://images.hive.blog/DQmbxFV17MK1pgwZ1gFUKhXWbGzK5LJJxRn5WwYq1s5f7be/image.png" alt="image.png"/></p>
<p><img src="https://images.hive.blog/DQmVMEyUNFFtrkVTVvM1csoxrJsd5i3HKYDepHpw5nRA4Nh/image.png" alt="image.png"/></p>
<p><img src="https://images.hive.blog/DQmQmLY6N9UffQs7Tg7UMJHQrSjHtqDac3PUA9TnbKMh5ta/image.png" alt="image.png"/></p>
<p>Some variation in mortality data among states may be expected due to <br/>varying population density among the various states studied. However, <br/>all states considered have rural, suburban and urban areas and <br/>populations.</p>
<p>We will compare below free states vs locked states of similar population density.</p>
<p>Table 3 shows population density for all of the states studied, as of 2018.</p>
<p><img src="https://images.hive.blog/DQmYXY9KuXbo4gKA74aytA7ASReWLyt2MuTNRwm13YrvKoM/image.png" alt="image.png"/></p>
<p>The above states have wide variation in population density, both <br/>within states and from one state to its neighboring state, as with most <br/>states.  However, of the states considered, two have the same population<br/> density.  Both Arkansas and Oklahoma have 57 people per square mile, <br/>and share a long border.  The former is free, and the latter is locked.</p>
<p>Table 4 compares the Arkansas and Oklahoma data.</p>
<p><img src="https://images.hive.blog/DQmbBVMbQGJ52YgEfw6EuKxhNLnZaeJ4BJsmqrDfah86Dg3/image.png" alt="image.png"/></p>
<p>Table 5 compares data among states with population density between 53 and 57.  The remaining states studied are widely divergent in population density, from 7 to 231.</p>
<p><strong>Table 5</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://images.hive.blog/DQmR5uJVMcJTcwwa5SgJHr3rYBaSrNhCKaWCBPraQYW9i3h/image.png" alt="image.png"/></p>
<p>Of the states with comparable population density in the mid-50’s, the<br/> free states Arkansas and Iowa averaged 1.95% COVID19 deaths of all <br/>deaths.  Whereas, the lockdown states of Oklahoma and Colorado averaged <br/>5.1% COVID19 deaths of all deaths.  So these two lockdown states had <br/>more than twice the COVID19 portion of total deaths of the two <br/>comparable free states, in fact 260% higher.</p>
<p>Let’s also address the problem of the inappropriate test that was <br/>discussed above used to certify cases and deaths as COVID19.  To <br/>eliminate this problem, let’s look at total deaths in the free states vs<br/> the neighboring lockdown states.</p>
<p>Table 6 compares the percent of expected deaths the past week for <br/>this time of year in the free states with that of their neighboring <br/>lockdown states.  All of the free states show lower than expected deaths<br/> (&lt;100%) for the past week for this time of year.  These figures are <br/>taken from the 4<sup>th</sup> column of Table 2 at the same CDC website, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/">https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/</a> <a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_edn12">[12]</a></p>
<p><strong>Table 6</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://images.hive.blog/DQmNsonuU9qcoZXNWs1sQj5emU2J1EbheX3sTaT9WWxTn7S/image.png" alt="image.png"/></p>
<p>The factor by which % of all expected deaths over the reported period<br/> are higher in the locked states than in the free states is 1.1.  That <br/>is, locked states’ percentage of all expected deaths averages 10% higher<br/> than in the free states.</p>
<p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p>
<p>The proportion of COVID19 deaths to all deaths is lower on average in<br/> the states without lockdown, the control group, than in the states with<br/> lockdown, the experimental group.  This held true also in states with <br/>the same population density.</p>
<p>Also, the percent of expected deaths, for the COVID19 period compared<br/> to previous years of the same season, from all causes, is as of this <br/>time lower in the free states than in the lockdown states after about <br/>two months of lockdown.</p>
<p>Quarantine of an entire state population, for disease control <br/>purpose, is an experiment without historical precedent.  The stated goal<br/> of quarantine of the well population was purportedly to reduce <br/>mortality from COVID19.</p>
<p>CDC data proved the experiment failed.  Both COVID19 death rates were<br/> lower, and overall deaths were lower than expected in the free states <br/>than in neighboring lockdown states.</p>
<p>Further damage from society-wide quarantine, commonly known as <br/>martial law, is economic devastation from loss of employment and loss of<br/> small and medium-sized businesses. The collateral damage of suicides, <br/>alcoholism and other substance abuse, anxiety and depression from this <br/>debacle are not yet measured, nor yet measurable in full.</p>
<p>Therefore, having failed in its stated goal, and having caused <br/>widespread violations of civil liberties and human rights, as well as <br/>economic and social havoc and widespread suffering, universal quarantine<br/> against infectious disease should not ever be repeated.</p>
<p>Corresponding author: Colleen Huber, NMD</p>
<p>Mail to: 1250 E. Baseline Rd., Suite 205, Tempe, AZ, USA  85283</p>
<hr/>
<p><a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_ednref1">[1]</a> <a href="https://macdailynews.com/2020/05/26/new-cdc-estimate-puts-covid-19-death-rate-at-0-26/">https://macdailynews.com/2020/05/26/new-cdc-estimate-puts-covid-19-death-rate-at-0-26/</a></p>
<p><a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_ednref2">[2]</a> <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/">https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/</a></p>
<p><a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_ednref3">[3]</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1263614691659649024/photo/1">https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1263614691659649024/photo/1</a></p>
<p><a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_ednref4">[4]</a> <a href="https://covidtracking.com/data">https://COVIDtracking.com/data</a></p>
<p><a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_ednref5">[5]</a> <a href="https://www.greenmedinfo.com/blog/does-2019-coronavirus-exist">https://www.greenmedinfo.com/blog/does-2019-coronavirus-exist</a></p>
<p><a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_ednref6">[6]</a> <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339770271_Potential_false-positive_rate_among_the_%27asymptomatic_infected_individuals%27_in_close_contacts_of_COVID-19_patients">https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339770271_Potential_false-positive_rate_among_the_%27asymptomatic_infected_individuals%27_in_close_contacts_of_COVID-19_patients</a></p>
<p><strong>Objective:</strong> As the prevention and control of COVID-19<br/> continues to advance, the active nucleic acid test screening in the <br/>close contacts of the patients has been carrying out in many parts of <br/>China. However, the false-positive rate of positive results in the <br/>screening has not been reported up to now. But to clearify the <br/>false-positive rate during screening is important in COVID-19 control <br/>and prevention. <strong>Methods:</strong> Point values and reasonable <br/>ranges of the indicators which impact the false-positive rate of <br/>positive results were estimated based on the information available to us<br/> at present. The false-positive rate of positive results in the active <br/>screening was deduced, and univariate and multivariate-probabilistic <br/>sensitivity analyses were performed to understand the robustness of the <br/>findings. <strong>Results:</strong> When the infection rate of the close<br/> contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were <br/>taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the <br/>active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate <br/>of positive results was 80.33%. The multivariate-probabilistic <br/>sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a <br/>75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over <br/>47%. <strong>Conclusions:</strong> In the close contacts of COVID-19 <br/>patients, nearly half or even more of the ‘asymptomatic infected <br/>individuals’ reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be<br/> false positives.</p>
<p>By <a href="https://colleenhuber.com/category/colleen-huber/"><strong>Colleen Huber, NMD</strong></a></p>
<p><a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_ednref7">[7]</a> <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/coronavirus-tanzania-test-kits-suspicion-goat-pawpaw-positive-a9501291.html">https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/coronavirus-tanzania-test-kits-suspicion-goat-pawpaw-positive-a9501291.html</a></p>
<p><a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_ednref8">[8]</a> <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/">https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/</a></p>
<p><a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_ednref9">[9]</a> <a href="https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/us-coronavirus-update-05-27-20/index.html">https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/us-coronavirus-update-05-27-20/index.html</a></p>
<p><a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_ednref10">[10]</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1263650439658180614/photo/1">https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1263650439658180614/photo/1</a></p>
<p><a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_ednref11">[11]</a> <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/19/unemployment-today-vs-the-great-depression-how-do-the-eras-compare.html">https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/19/unemployment-today-vs-the-great-depression-how-do-the-eras-compare.html</a></p>
<p><a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/#_ednref12">[12]</a> <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/">https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/</a></p>
<p><em><strong>Source: </strong></em><a href="https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/"><em><strong>https://colleenhuber.com/covid19-a-controlled-study/</strong></em></a></p>
<p><em><strong>Twitter: </strong></em><a href="https://twitter.com/ColleenHuberNMD"><em><strong>https://twitter.com/ColleenHuberNMD</strong></em></a></p>
<p><a href="https://colleenhuber.wpengine.com"><em>Colleen Huber, NMD</em></a><em> is a Naturopathic Medical Doctor, a </em><a href="https://colleenhuber.com/colleen-huber-nmd-tempe-arizona/medical-license/"><em>licensed physician in Arizona</em></a><em>.  She has a Fellowship of the Naturopathic Oncology Research Institute (FNORI). Her clinic is </em><a href="https://colleenhuber.com/dr-hubers-clinic/"><em>Nature Works Best</em></a><em>.</em></p>
<p><strong>Subscribe for </strong><a href="https://www.naturalblaze.com/newsletter"><strong>natural health news to your inbox</strong></a><strong>. Follow Natural Blaze on </strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqvdkQE3bvzXzhvfpWgOaGg"><strong>YouTube</strong></a><strong>, </strong><a href="https://twitter.com/TheNaturalBlaze"><strong>Twitter</strong></a><strong> and </strong><a href="https://www.facebook.com/Natural-Blaze-228076017338034/"><strong>Facebook</strong></a><strong>.</strong></p>
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