Market Thoughts: It's in Cycles
blog·@adamada·
0.000 HBDMarket Thoughts: It's in Cycles
So we're back to bullish days now? I've been reading some my old shitposts like [You see red, I see Green](https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@adamada/you-see-red-i-see-green) and [Powering Up to Dolphin](https://peakd.com/hive-196233/@adamada/just-achieved-dolphin-status), to save you time, these throwback posts were my thoughts about the market conditions during the red days. These are not viral content but it did ground my thoughts on what's happening now. Are we back in the good old days when crypto brought smiles to people seeing their wallets? maybe, probably yes and no. Depends when you're in the long or short position of the trade. What I just know after going through two bear markets is that experience helps you make better decisions when the next shit happens. For the people that are in selling early or missing the boat, well you had a year to accumulate. If it's some consolation, it's not like this was a predictable event. Now it's a Bull market, the script says: YOU HAD A YEAR TO ACCUMULATE! When it's Bear market, the script says: YOU WERE IN GREEN, YOU SHOULD HAVE SOLD AND NOT GET GREEDY. Or something along those lines but regardless of the market condition, there's always going to be team I told you so versus wish I'd cash out soon. On my case, I bought some Hive at 0.3155$ didn't mean much since I half hearted expected the price to go higher but it was predominantly a negative sentiment where I staked thinking it's going to get lower. The mindset from the move is that I'm paying for a price I'm willing to lose so if I get a bad outcome, it's not something I'd be regretting a lot. Hive could still go lower than at the time of this writing and I wouldn't feel bad for the missing opportunity because it's the long game plan. When everyone is euphoric about the market being green, shouldn't people be selling? when it's blood red, shouldn't people be accumulating? I know it's easier said than done especially in hindsight but everyday we get a chance to practice the wisdom and still fail the assignment. My own investing principle is pick a choice that when you're wrong, it's something you can recover from or pursue the least painful route without costing you a lot of opportunities. It sounds vague but it's just risk management and tailoring what you do with what you're capable to handle. It doesn't matter how shiny the investment opportunity is, if you get rug pulled or a token tanked hard, you wish you didn't bother or had some portion of your losses returned. Here's the cure for feeling like you missed out from the trend, instill in your mind that there's always going to be a next time. It repeats. It goes up and down but if you lost your money over FOMO, you ain't going to get a next shot when the opportunity presents. I look at the tokens pumping and be like, shit, I could've watched and traded that before the pump, but there's no way to know 100% and I could lose money. But then even in bear markets there's some random tokens pumping anyway. I didn't get how psychology played a greater role in trading and investing until I started getting more skin in the game. It's fucking easy to follow instructions, when red/green, buy/sell at price, do this, wait for that but trying to navigate yourself along these instructions doing live is a different story. Last year, you may have told yourself to accumulate and sell when things go high, now it's high and I'm sure people are anticipating it to go higher (that's fine, that's natural, that's how the market conditions people). The opposite mindset happens in the bear market too and everything goes in cycles. A hypothetical capital of 1000$, if your unrealized loss in a trade was -300$, would you cut the loss now or still hope the price would rise and take a minimize loss instead? There's an instruction that says cut it now but execution is hard. For people handling bigger capital, the same principle applies but greater numbers and maybe it's not just your money at stake. For the people that are still on the crypto space surviving the bear markets, remember your mindset when you started crypto especially during the bull run because there are going to be people onboarded on the space that are going to feel these highs then get bitch slap once the highs end. I'm talking to myself when I'm also writing this stuff because these shitposts of mine are self reminders from the past grounding my view points to whatever future I'll be in later. If you made it this far reading, thank you for your time.
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