Through 15 years in the Precious Metal space – when I was fully invested, in every possible manner – my premise was that fiat currency would, euphemistically put, significantly decline in value versus the only sound money the world had ever known.  Moreover, silver would act as “poor man’s gold” – and in a worse case monetary scenario, revert to its transactional properties of the days of yore.

When Bitcoin arrived on my radar screen in 2013, I was understandably skeptical – the reason being, it was a brand new asset with more questions than answers, and more complex technology than the financial world had ever encountered.

However, in January 2016 it occurred to Bitcoin had an opportunity to play a major monetary role – and thus, I started buying it aggressively, and recommending it equally so.  I still believed Precious Metals had a role to play, particularly because my premise of an upcoming fiat collapse remained; thus, my principal view at the time was that Bitcoin and Precious Metals could have a symbiotic relationship.

That said, when SegWit locked in in July 2017, I changed my outlook for the future of money.  I still believed gold had a role to play due to its legacy value - but that it would diminish in time, as the older generations who own it pass it on to younger, crypto-oriented generations.  As for silver, I sold it very publicly – espousing that in the Digital Age, it would have no monetary role.  

This is when I left the bullion industry to start CGC – and wrote, in one of my first articles, that “trillions will enter the crypto space – perhaps, half in Bitcoin.”  At the time, I believed only in Bitcoin, but recognized that in the upcoming Digital Age, vast amounts of capital would flow into the space – thus, enabling quality altcoins; many of which, had not yet been invented; to thrive, too.  

https://steemit.com/mwc/@andyhoffman/7-08-andy-hoffman-cryptogoldcentral-com-flashback-article-from-9-15-17-trillions-will-enter-the-crypto-space-perhaps-half-in

In the ensuing months, my belief in crypto’s future strengthened – so much, I lost all interest in gold.  Aside from the fact that it has been hopelessly diluted by “paper gold”; demonetized by propaganda; and usurped in functionality by Bitcoin; it dawned on me that even legacy holders would shortly realize its inferiority – not to mention, the thousands of Millennials and Gen Z’s inheriting it over the coming decades.  

I thus sold my gold, fully embracing Bitcoin as the future of money.  That said, another interesting transformation occurred in my mind – as for the first time, I saw a positive outcome for the world’s monetary predicament.  No longer did I expect an economic crash – or for that matter, a “dollar crash” any time soon; though of course, fiat currency would continue to be debased, with non-reserve currencies experiencing more inflation than the dollar.

When the vicious year-long crypto bear ended in February, I was out of Bitcoin due to my well-documented decision to hold a large cash position when the Hoffman Line broke.  I believed strongly in my Bitcoin Rhodium position – and MWC, having joined its development team in January; but needed to protect my long-term financial position, given my age and level of risk adversity.  

Given my increasing level of confidence that the Hoffman Line will not be re-broken, I re-entered Bitcoin in June – which now, is in my view in the process of virally spreading its message, to a worldwide audience desperate for a better monetary future.  All that said, what is my “most likely scenario” for the next few years?

To start, I expect the crypto sector to exceed the $1 trillion market cap level within a year or so (i.e, a 3x gain) - as per the above article, $1 trillion is still chump change compared to the $350+ trillion legacy capital markets.  Much of this growth will be organic, but a small portion may be due to cannibalization of legacy assets.  

Stocks, bonds, fiat currency, and gold will be around for a long time – however, the process of their use cases being usurped by crypto has clearly begun.  How long this will take is impossible to determine, but my assumption is it will be over a period of decades, not years – which is why I don’t fear the U.S. dollar at the moment.

Perhaps the “next few years” will see crypto rise to $2 trillion or even $3 trillion in market cap; i.e,, another 5-10x move.  It would not surprise me one bit – as again, the process of creating a new, major asset class entails massive amounts of capital creation and migration…and in my view, there’s no way the crypto genie can ever be put back in its bottle.

If this occurs, will Bitcoin “dominance” remain at current levels of roughly 63% (which is more reliable than in the past, due to more stringent coinmarketcap.com accounting processes)?  Or will it return to pre-2017 levels of 90%, or fall to early 2018 levels around 35%?

In my view, this is a far more difficult question than whether crypto can grow 5-10x – as there are so many crosscurrents within the space itself.  My initial instinct is that it will gravitate toward somewhat lower levels – as speculative juices are too powerful to ignore, as they are one of the basest aspects of the human condition.  

Crypto is the biggest bull market of our lifetimes – and as we saw in early 2018, there is MUCH more profit to generate in smaller coins rising from small values, than Bitcoin at $200+ billion.  And despite maximalists’ belief that Bitcoin is the only real coin, there are plenty of others with the potential to be useful – and thus, thousands of investors seeking the next great crypto opportunity.

Even so, it’s difficult to guess which way Bitcoin dominance will rise, given the sheer size of Bitcoin – as frankly, historic profits can be made in altcoins DESPITE rising Bitcoin dominance.  It all comes down to how broad altcoin buying is, and how significant their cumulative impact.

As for Precious Metals, I continue to see little, if any, use for them in the Digital Age – particularly silver, whose rapidly declining liquidity is making it increasingly difficult to sell.  Crypto will be the primary beneficiary of Precious Metals’ demise due to the aforementioned “inheritance factor” – and it won’t surprise me one bit if at sometime in the not-so-distant future, we see the first Central bank visibly selling its gold due to weakened resolve about its future.

Fiat currency isn’t going away any time soon, but crypto adoption will erode its market share slowly at first, then more rapidly over time.  The U.S. dollar will likely gain strength, due to the natural process of capital fleeing less stable currencies – but not against Bitcoin, which has already started the process of becoming a dominant; if not, THE dominant; monetary force.

Will we have another crypto-mania in the coming “few years,” a la late 2017 through early 2018?  One would think capital would be more discerning, after what occurred then.  However, I believe MUCH more capital will be entering this time around, to the tune of MANY trillions of dollars.  And one thing I know about Wall Street, it’s that it WILL diversify, and WILL seek the most speculative opportunities.  Thus, if you are holding quality altcoins, I think you will be richly rewarded.