The Kondratiev waves
economy·@aximot·
0.000 HBDThe Kondratiev waves
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<h1>Hi everyone :)</h1>
<p>I'm aximot and this is my first post on steemit. I joined because of my interest in blockchain technology lead my to this project. After getting into the world of cryptocurrencies, i found out about steemit and was impressed by it's concept. So, now I want to try this whole thing out and hope to get on a nice journey with the community on here.</p>
<p>First of all, excuse my for my bad english, it isn't my mother language. Feel free to correct mistakes in the text ;)</p>
<p>For my first post I want to make a little experiment. I recently have to study for an exam in my economy class and try to combine the learning process with sharing you the content which may interest you too and I hope for an increasing learning progress by revising and researching on the topic.</p>
<p>My short text deals with the theory of the russian econonomist Nikolai Kondratiev.</p>
<p><img src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/04/%D0%9D%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B9_%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8C%D0%B5%D0%B2.JPG" width="288" height="386"/></p>
<p><em>Photo of Nikolai Dmitriyevich Kondratiev (1892-1938)</em></p>
<h3>What?</h3>
<p>His theory is about cycles from 40 to 60 years in our modern world economy, started by a new innovative technology called <strong>basic innovation</strong>. You can see how this works from the first wave from 1787 to 1842. It was caused by the development of the steam engine and made the change from an agrarian to an industrial culture, making massproduction possible. This new technology created a boom for the industry until the recession came and the time of the first cycle was over, but the one of railway and steel had just come.</p>
<h3>Where those innovations came from?</h3>
<p>The starting point of the basic innovations were at first in England, with the invention of the steam engine from James Watt in the 18th century and later Germany/Europe, the USA and also Japan. </p>
<h3>Illustration</h3>
<p>As you maybe recognized I already mentioned the recession, one of the phases of the waves. As you can see on the illustration, one wave consist of 4 steps, starting with: </p>
<p><img src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c4/Kondratieff_Wave.svg/520px-Kondratieff_Wave.svg.png" width="520" height="239"/></p>
<p><strong>Prosperity (also called "summer") </strong></p>
<p>It all starts with a depressed<strong> </strong>state investing into a new technology, which is gaining more and more importance and leads to stable interest rates, prices and a rising inflatation. The state profits from this phase by beeing able to get higher taxes through the economical wealth and having new workplaces contributing to the country. </p>
<p><strong>Recession ("autumn") </strong></p>
<p>Now production rates and consumer interest start sinking, there is no more investing. Recession is often caused by a war or a crisis in which ressources are getting rare. Prices rise, and profits of companys sink.</p>
<p><strong>Depression ("winter") </strong></p>
<p>The lowest point the recession reaches. Prices are low. interest is low and the profits decline. The depression builts the foundation for a new basic innovation to start a new cycle. The old innovation is now cheap and can be used by people that weren't able to afford it in the earlier phases.</p>
<p><strong>Improvement ("spring")</strong></p>
<p>Improvement means a new cycle starts after a new basic innovation was made and the process can repeat it again by starting with step 1.</p>
<h3>The 6th cycle</h3>
<p>The 6th cycle could be for example in nanotechnology, biotechnolgy, artificial intelligence and robotics, health, renewable energy or cloud computing. Our society today is able to make high-tech inventions, not only in making working easier through machines like in the 18th century the steam engine, which cloud be re-done today by a revolution in the robotic and industry 4.0, but also in improving the inventor itself. The human beeing can be "improved" by fighting problems like burnouts and other phsychological problems, which put high pressure on the people. Im very exited, what the future can bring us, as long it won't be psychophatic machines that post my search history on my facebook account ;D</p>
<p><img src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/MFEw37uMQyM/maxresdefault.jpg" width="2000" height="1270"/></p>
<p><em>Which innovations future will bring us?</em></p>
<h3>Criticism</h3>
<p>Critics claim, the future can not been predicted 100% accurate from past events, even if you can use historical data and patterns to analyse them and transfer it to the present, it is still no guarantee, certain events will happen in the following years. Kontratiev himself said:</p>
<p>" Even granting the existence of long waves, one is, of course, not justified in believing that economic dynamic consists only in fluctuations around a certain level. The course of economic activity represents beyond doubt a process of development, but this development obviously proceeds not only through intermediate waves but also through long ones. (Kondratiev 1935) "</p>
<h3>Conclusion</h3>
<p>As a conclusion of my first short text I can say it wasn't as easy as i expected to just write a short article about a topic we had in school. We only analysed the grafic illustration of the waves, but had no further information about it. After writing it down and doing some researches, I have a greater knowledge for my exam now and maybe gave you a short summary of what this thematic is about. I'm looking forward to improve my writing style, produce better and more detailed posts and find some interesting things to write about no matter if it is about sport, gaming, science, food or whatever. It was a good experience to practice my writing in english and I had fun making this little post for you.</p>
<p>I hope you enjoyed it and I appreciated every constructive criticism.</p>
<p>Have a nice day and stay positive :)</p>
<p><br></p>
<pre><code><em>Sources</em></code></pre>
<pre><code><strong>Text</strong></code></pre>
<pre><code>http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/financial-winter-nearing/</code></pre>
<pre><code>http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article56246.html</code></pre>
<pre><code>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave</code></pre>
<pre><code>Images</code></pre>
<pre><code>1st picture</code></pre>
<pre><code>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Kondratiev</code></pre>
<pre><code>2nd picture</code></pre>
<pre><code>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave</code></pre>
<pre><code>3rd picture</code></pre>
<pre><code>https://i.ytimg.com/vi/MFEw37uMQyM/maxresdefault.jpg</code></pre>
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