# Fact vs Alternative Fact

### There is no such thing called "Alternative Fact"

The first time I heard this phrase is from Kellyanne Conway on national television where she was wrongfully defending something that was false. Now, the phrase even has a wikipedia page! My goodness, the world we live in!

> "Alternative facts" was a phrase used by U.S. Counselor to the President Kellyanne Conway during a Meet the Press interview on January 22, 2017, in which she defended White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer's false statement about the attendance numbers of Donald Trump's inauguration as President of the United States.

I can't believe that I will ever write this, but let us explore what fact is! 

> A fact is a statement that can be verified. It can be proven to be true or false through objective evidence

For example: following things are facts. 

- Earth is round (I am a geologist, damn it! That has to come first)
- 2+2 = 4
- Freezing point of water is 0 degrees celsius

I am sure you get it. Facts are things that people do not argue about. There is no need to argue about such things. Yet today, that is wishful thinking!


![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/azircon/23twAVdtEGF4XKpo9FaFnNNVZFzGjmA82VejaKbUpiG159y9Etj1CPQ9iu9aadw3PQTEG.png)

[Source: Project 538 simulation outcome of Electoral College Result as of Nov 02, 2024](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo)


# Election Result

### Prediction

Well the above image is a simulation based on various polls. Project 538 was created by Nate Silver, and for the record, no matter how good a statistician he is, he and his company predicted last two election outcome incorrectly! But hey, past performance does not guarantee future results! For a while fivethirtyeight.com is predicting a close to toss up election result with a slight bias towards Trump victory which is well within the 4% prediction error. I do a lot of prediction on outcome of a well result: whether it will get hydrocarbons or not; and I can tell you a 50/50 or a 49/51 simulation result is as good a not doing the simulation at all. You can just say "I don't have the first damn clue"!

### Now you have the result!

In little more than three days time, we will have the result, and we will know. I have a hope that life could be this simple, but it is obviously not. I always thought, as the votes are counted, we get a final factual number that is firm (it is firm, I am certain, but a lot of people don't believe it!). In a state like Texas, with 18M registered voters; 12.6M people voted (let us assume, that is 70%), 6.5 M voted for the Republican candidate, 6M voted for the democratic candidate, 0.1M voted for independent or whatever. That is the result: Republican candidate wins. In fact, by the late election night as 90% votes in Texas have been counted, perhaps the Republican candidate (let us assume the senate race, Cruz vs. Allred, and not the presidential race) will declare victory and the democratic candidate accept the loss graciously! Alas, that will be wishful thinking these days!





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