Bold Statement: We Are Headed For The Dead Cat Bounce (A Must Read For Every Steemian)
bitcoin·@brianphobos·
0.000 HBDBold Statement: We Are Headed For The Dead Cat Bounce (A Must Read For Every Steemian)
<html> <p><br></p> <center> <p><img src="https://steemitimages.com/DQmb3JvVWpjw8TNSMESvJjMjGoycK4nSDiVbLydqPKVNUcm/wrestling-deadcat.png" width="800" height="533"/></p> </center> <p>I am extremely bullish on cryto currencies in the long term. Crypto currencies are the future no questions asked but that doesn't change the fact that it can drop like a guillotine and not come back anytime soon. Don't mistake this post as trying to spread fear. <strong>This isn't my first rodeo.</strong> I saw my parents get smashed in the dot com bubble and have studied what happened in that bubble. I had money in the stock market when it collapsed in 2008 during the real estate bubble. I first found out about Bitcoin in late 2013 and ultimately I lived through the crypto nuclear winter of 2015. <strong>It was terrible. </strong> A high of $1200 in 2013 and a low of $176 in Jan, 2015. <strong>FUCKING TERRIBLE!</strong> </p> <p>This boom cycle has literally been like <strong>Déjà Vu </strong>in a lot of ways.<strong> </strong>The Bitcoin Cash scenario was the one main difference. This time around instead of having clone coins of BTC and LTC we have all these ICOs. <strong>90% of them are scams or go no where projects that don't make sense. </strong></p> <h1><strong>On September 10th</strong></h1> <p>Four days ago I made the following statement that this boom cycle was likely over. I texted that to @steve-mcclair . Basically that it wouldn't overtake the high of $5,000 this cycle. That was before the last few days of brutal drops. Check out the date on my text.<strong> </strong></p> <center> <p><img src="https://steemitimages.com/DQmXAoy7BDoMoFUFRgJJggeZ9v7swvSWwQNtBMN4YiDfDJS/text-runover.png" width="800" height="836"/></p> </center> <h1>You Think This Time is Different?</h1> <p>I know the feeling of not knowing how long a run will go on. There is no real way to tell a lot of times. These booms in all sectors tend to go on way longer than expected. The rise of the stock market, real estate, and this cryto boom cycle have all honestly lasted longer than I expected them to. Focusing on the crypto market my main concern with Bitcoin was that there were all types of scaling issues. </p> <h3>Bitcoin worked better in 2013 when I got involved then it does now. That is honestly pretty sad. I'm not talking shit but what if your cell phone you have now didn't work as well as the one you had in 2013? That would be unacceptable and you would be pissed. </h3> <h1>Main Stream Attention</h1> <p>As far as celebrities scenarios or crazy things that happened it honestly feels exactly the same for me when you take a step back and take a look at it. First I'm going to have a list of stuff that happened in 2013/2014 boom cycle. It was exciting and it went <strong>"main stream." </strong> </p> <h2>2013/2014</h2> <p><strong>December 1st, 2013</strong> - "A College Kid Made More Than $24,000 Yesterday Just By Waving This Sign On ESPN"</p> <p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/someone-holding-bitcoin-sign-on-college-gameday-receives-over-22-bitcoins-2013-12">http://www.businessinsider.com/someone-holding-bitcoin-sign-on-college-gameday-receives-over-22-bitcoins-2013-12</a></p> <center> <p><img src="https://steemitimages.com/DQmWSYB21X4XgxidEsSuwMPaQ6JmMSqAoCn1KWzzMsVsmTo/college-game-day-sign.png" width="480" height="447"/></p> </center> <p><strong>January 14th, 2014</strong> - "Kanye West Sues Amazon, Others Over 'Coinye West' Cryptocurrency"</p> <p><a href="http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr-esq/kanye-west-sues-coinye-west-670844">http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr-esq/kanye-west-sues-coinye-west-670844</a></p> <center> <p><img src="https://steemitimages.com/DQmVkiH3z9hgv9DPPwcTa63qprf22tJr8dB5KGzVmQGVSj2/uptown-coinyewest.png" width="243" height="237"/></p> </center> <p><strong>January 22nd, 2014</strong> - "Online Donors Send Jamaican Bobsled Team To Sochi" </p> <p><a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/01/22/265060754/wow-dogecoin-other-donors-send-jamaican-bobsled-team-to-sochi">http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/01/22/265060754/wow-dogecoin-other-donors-send-jamaican-bobsled-team-to-sochi</a></p> <center> <p><img src="https://steemitimages.com/DQmaruzaagSR8x1QnqLvYJazr5QChkGS5LuFUBAVVEzacRa/dogecoin-raising-funds-jamaican-bobsleigh-team.jpg" width="599" height="450"/></p> </center> <p><strong>February 26th, 2014 </strong>- ObamaCare uses a Dogecoin like meme to promote ObamaCare. </p> <p><a href="https://coinreport.net/bitcoin-can-learn-dogecoin-community/">https://coinreport.net/bitcoin-can-learn-dogecoin-community/</a></p> <center> <p><img src="https://steemitimages.com/DQmTEN2uiKdHYxwPbZxxjAgJ6FwYThz4cYipVasERsKARHh/healthcare.doge_.jpg" width="599" height="600"/></p> </center> <p><strong>April 27th, 2014</strong> - "The NASCAR Dogecoin car is real and it is beautiful"</p> <p><a href="http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/04/nascar-doge-dogecoin-dogecar-josh-wise">http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/04/nascar-doge-dogecoin-dogecar-josh-wise</a></p> <center> <p><img src="https://steemitimages.com/DQmYu6VGMat2j8fLso5BTStArCA7ck3QFt3So4VsaUKNEWh/doge-nascar.png" width="630" height="591"/></p> </center> <p><strong>October 30th, 2014</strong> - Shaquille O'neal Mentions Cryptocurrency Quark</p> <p><iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/YhdstBESEdY" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></p> <h1>2017</h1> <p>All the stuff of Jamie Dimon running his mouth about Bitcoin, Paris Hilton tweeting about crypto, Floyd Mayweather mentioning crypto on Instagram, the OG dude holding up the Buy Bitcoin sign at the Fed Meeting.....etc....etc...etc. All great stuff and as you can see from the events above Bitcoin and crypto went <strong>"main stream"</strong> back in 2013/2014 from a media perspective. </p> <p>Yes I get it, volumes are way up and institutional money has been coming in and all that and that is why the price is higher. Each boom cycle will go higher for the coins that can keep people's attention. A lot of coins will fall by the wayside and the top 20 and top 100 will look way different in a couple of years. </p> <p>Now let's look at the common chart that gets shown for all bubbles that burst. </p> <center> <p><img src="https://steemitimages.com/DQmT4haTiKGnvbxgfm1x5jGfLhMp9QVLWxhQiyHty1LVVjy/stages_bubble.png" width="720" height="482"/></p> </center> <p>So I believe with this crypto boom cycle we are at the "Bull Trap" AKA the Dead Cat Bounce stage. I honestly thought when it dropped to $2,000 a few months ago that that was possible the Dead Cat Bounce. I think it could have been but then suddenly we had the Bitcoin Cash situation and everyone wanted to hold or to buy Bitcoin to get their "free money." It was tons of fun and one of the most interesting things that happened in this space in it's history. </p> <h1>Another Similarity </h1> <p>With all the uncertainty from China whether crypto exchanges will be legal or not has a lot of people worried. This same type of thing was happening back in 2013/2014. There was always news in Russia and China as if it was going to be outlawed. Then we had the Mt. Gox fiasco. Then MintPal went down. There was tons of good news going on at that time as well. Merchant acceptance was rising and PayPal even signed a partnership with Coinbase and a few other companies in the crypto space. </p> <p>The <a href="https://www.dailydot.com/layer8/bitcoin-bowl-bitpay-one-year-later/">Bitcoin Football Bowl</a> game was coming up. There were all kind of exciting things but the price kept sliding. </p> <h1>The Main Reason For The Price Decline</h1> <p>Cryto has had a great run and people are going to take profits and try to avoid drops when there is bad news. The big drops like this crush the little guys who need the money in the next couple of months to pay bills. A lot of the people getting in lately are people who just don't want to miss out and think they might get rich or at least make a bunch of money in a couple weeks or a month before their bills are due. </p> <p>Everything is so debt based these days that people don't even own their cell phones, cars, homes.....etc. How are they going to withstand the mental pressure of 30, 40, 50% drops? <strong>They can't.</strong> They need the money for the bills. </p> <p><strong>They fold one by one.</strong> A lot of people getting in recently don't know how to transfer coins, they don't understand what it is, they just think they can make a quick buck and do see potential in the general premise of it. </p> <h1>How Sure Am I That This Is The Dead Cat Bounce?</h1> <h3>90% Sure. I have other things to do today but I have spent a lot of time on this blog to warn my followers and have this record on the blockchain. </h3> <h3>It is possible the market overcomes this and Bitcoin goes to new highs but I'm anticipating that it falls to around $2,900 and then it will bounce back to about $3,800 before starting it's long VERY PAINFUL death spiral down to a base of $1,500 possibly lower. </h3> <h1>Can We Make Money off The Dead Cat Bounce? </h1> <p>YES, but it will be tough. It will happen very fast and if the price targets are off slightly you can get dropped on your head. I might do a bunch of instant buys on Coinbase around that $2,900 mark if it gets there anticipating the bounce back up and then I will sell again on the rebound. <strong>It is extremely risky. </strong></p> <p><strong>I wouldn't try to short Bitcoin because there is always that chance it could turn around and head to a new high but I think that is unlikely. </strong></p> <h1><strong>What Should You Do If You Are All In Right Now</strong></h1> <p>At this point it probably makes sense to just hold and wait for the bounce and then when it is gets around $3,600 or so start skimming profits or retreating to things like the STEEM backed dollar. </p> <h1>What Am I Basing This On</h1> <p>Experience, History, Long Term Charts, The amount of dumb money entering the market, the amount of scams popping up, and my gut feeling.</p> <h1>Conclusion</h1> <p>Once again I'm very bullish on the crypto space over the long term. These drops can be extremely vicious and I don't want to see people get washed out. It will happen to a lot of people. It is a tough thing to do and sounds cliche but crypto money has to be money that if you lose it all it doesn't effect your current life at all. I don't follow that rule sometimes but I don't have any kids or anyone who depends on me. <strong>If I end up sleeping in a tent then FUCK IT! I went big if nothing else! </strong></p> <p><strong>This post probably won't get a lot of upvotes and people will think it is "negative". Hopefully this was helpful to someone.</strong></p> <p><em>This isn't financial or investment advice. I'm just some guy who swims around in his pool and talks to himself. Ask your grandma or someone in a suit for advice or make your own decision.</em></p> <p><a href="http://img.bleacherreport.net/img/images/photos/003/184/519/1eaaad69ecf8fd3d37ba3832d19ba4a4_crop_exact.jpg?w=900&h=600&q=75"><em>Wrestling Picture Source</em></a></p> <p><a href="https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/img/stages_bubble.png"><em>Bubble Chart Source</em></a></p> <h1><a href="https://www.coinbase.com/join/529e26dcd2421b03c4000252">Earn $10 Of Free Bitcoin From Brian Phobos! </a></h1> <p><img src="https://steemitimages.com/DQmQjW6FYntS7KgoB2bXTAgBaL3b483vzCHgqRaDENRW8S7/steemit-footer-2017.png" width="797" height="331"/></p> <p>Thank you for reading my post and please consider following me <a href="https://steemit.com/@brianphobos">@brianphobos</a></p> </html>
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