A portion of the analysis that I did not publish was looking only at posts that fell high enough on the new curve to earn at least 25% more compared to the old curve.  For those posts, which comprised ~ 25% of the total reward pool, the bid bot list above accounted for 50% of the curation reward!  I am not optimistic about HF21, to put it mildly.  It just was stressing me out so much and giving me anxiety as I was looking at the numbers that I had to just stop and put it to bed for my own peace of mind.