http://cagedminds.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/maia-condit.jpg
*source: [cagedminds](cagedminds.com)*

# Fight Card
### Showing on FOX, 5PM PST, 8PM EST
[Demian Maia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demian_Maia) (23-6, 17-6 UFC) vs. [Carlos Condit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Condit) (30-9, 7-5 UFC)

[Anthony Pettis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Pettis) (18-5, 5-4 UFC) vs. [Charles Oliveira](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Oliveira) (21-5-1, 9-5-1 UFC)

[Paige VanZant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paige_VanZant) (6-2, 3-1 UFC) vs. [Bec Rawlings](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bec_Rawlings) (7-4, 2-1 UFC)

[Joe Lauzon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Lauzon) (26-11, 13-8 UFC) vs. [Jim Miller](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Miller_(fighter)) (26-8-1, 15-7-1 UFC)

## Betting Odds
https://www.liquidpoker.net/staff/Daut/UFC_on_Fox_maia_v_condit_odd.png
*odds taken from [BestFightOdds](bestfightodds.com)*

### What do these numbers mean?
-**When there is a minus (-) sign in front of a number, it indicates how much you need to bet in order to win $100.
-When there is a plus (+) sign in front of a number, it indicates how much you win if you bet $100.**

So for example, Carlos Condit is roughly -130 on most of the sportsbooks and Demian Maia is roughly +110. If you bet $130 on Carlos Condit and he wins, you win $100 (get back your $130 investment plus your $100 in winnings). If you bet $100 on Demian Maia and he wins, you win $110 (get back your $100 investment plus your $110 in winnings).

So essentially, the fighter who has a minus number is a favorite, and the fighter who has a plus number is the underdog.

### Why are the numbers not the same?
The difference between the minus and plus numbers is like a tax you pay the sportsbook for taking your bet. 

If there wasn’t a gap between the numbers and one fighter was say -140 and the other was +150, then you could bet $140 on the favorite and $95 on the underdog and guarantee a win. How? If the favorite wins, you bet $140, you win $100 and lose $95 on the underdog for a total profit of $5. If the underdog wins, you bet $95 and win $142.50 but lose $140 on the favorite for a profit of $2.50. 

The sportsbook is not interested in giving free money away, so the minus number is always bigger than the positive number.

### What does this mean in terms of odds to win the fight?
Carlos Condit (54.27%) vs Demian Maia (45.73%)
Anthony Pettis (64.29%) vs Charles Oliveira (35.71%)
Paige VanZant (66.36%) vs Bec Rawlings (33.64%)
Joe Lauzon (58.82%) vs Jim Miller (41.18%)

# Analysis of fights
## Maia vs. Condit
#### Carlos Condit
Condit is a former UFC champion, the #6 ranked Welterweight (170 pounds) fighter in the world,  and recently had a controversial decision loss to Robbie Lawler for the championship, [a fight most MMA media people and fans (including myself) thought he won](http://mmadecisions.com/decision/6727/Robbie-Lawler-vs-Carlos-Condit). He is one of the most exciting fighters in the sport, racking up 7 performance of the night bonuses in his 12 fight UFC career.

http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/973190/10001907.gif
*Condit hits a flying knee and finishes Dong Hyun Kim in the 1st round of their fight. source: [sbnation](www.sbnation.com)*

He has great cardio, deadly standup, and slick submissions off his back. His only weakness is his wrestling: he is very prone to being taken down and controlled, which has directly led to most of his losses.

#### Demian Maia
Demian Maia is the #5 Welterweight in the world, and is a former Brazilian Jiu Jitsu world champion and has transitioned smoothly into MMA using his world class grappling skills alongside excellent chain wrestling — stringing together takedown attempt after takedown attempt with different techniques. He is possibly the most dangerous ground fighter in the entire sport, with 8 of his UFC wins coming via various submissions. 

http://i42.tinypic.com/11gm146.gif
*Maia securing a triangle choke against Chael Sonnen. source: [MMA-Core](www.mma-core.com)*

After a pair of losses in 2013 and early 2014, Maia has rattled off a 5 fight win streak and reentered the top 5 rankings. His weaknesses are his striking and cardio. 

#### Breakdown
So one of Maia’s greatest strengths (wrestling) is Condit’s weakness, while Condit’s greatest strengths (striking and cardio) are Maia’s weaknesses. Clashing style matchups always make for fun fights. Maia is likely to control Condit early in the fight using his superior grappling skills (he may even submit him early), but as the fight wears on and Condit’s pace makes Maia tire, he will begin to take over the fight. This should be a fun multifaceted fight with fantastic technique on the ground, and a possible come from behind victory. 

## Pettis vs. Oliveira
#### Anthony Pettis
Anthony Pettis is also a former UFC champion, and is the current #7 Lightweight (155 pounds) fighter in the world. Other than his UFC title reign, his claim to fame is the most famous kick in UFC history, pushing off the cage to land a head kick on Ben Henderson in the 5th round of their WEC title fight (a fight which was even until that kick). 

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-JmfHa0IDtCQ/Uh6tr8uDvzI/AAAAAAAAAwU/5-PbKkrlcP0/s1600/anthony-pettis-showtime-kick-big.gif
*source: the now defunct MMATKO*

Pettis has some of the most creative and deadly striking in the sport. His weakness is facing pressure based wrestlers that put his back against the cage and deny him the space necessary to use his creativity and kicks. 

#### Charles Oliveira
The creativity Anthony Pettis brings on the feet is matched by Charles Oliveira on the ground. 

http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/968901/i27005_DoBronx2.gif
*Oliveira hits a funky calf slicer on Eric Wisely. source: [sbnation](www.sbnation.com)*

Oliveira is the #6 ranked Featherweight (145 pound) fighter in the world. But other than his ground game skills, Oliveira struggles with his durability and is wild on the feet.

#### Breakdown
Oliveira is active but not a pressure fighter. He will not back Anthony Pettis down continually and force him against the cage but instead try to employ tactics to close the distance and land wild strikes to catch Pettis off guard while Anthony stalks him. I think the most likely scenario is Pettis uses these windows to find a home for devastating body kicks and finishes Oliveira with strikes, but Oliveira is tricky and always capable of locking up a submission. 

## Paige VanZant vs Bec Rawlings
#### Paige VanZant
Paige is an exciting and marketable Strawweight (115 pound) fighter. Due to her young age and relative lack of experience, her fighting skills and technique are subpar for her level. However, by overwhelming opponents with cardio, pace, and heart, she is able to compete with fringe top 10 fighters.

https://giant.gfycat.com/MindlessHandmadeDodo.gif
*Paige armbars Alex Chambers. source: [MMA-CORE](www.mma-core.com)*

Paige is recently more famous for appearing on Dancing With The Stars than her fighting career. She finished runner-up, but now she is back in the cage. 

#### Breakdown
I expect this to go like many other fights Paige has had. Her lack of technique will get her into trouble early, but heart and pace will take over and she will win via late stoppage vs a lower ranked fighter.

## Joe Lauzon vs Jim Miller
#### Joe Lauzon
Joe has been around for years as a fringe top 10 fighter. Although he never secured a title shot, Joe has won *14 postfight bonuses* for his exciting style, including 6 fight of the nights and 6 submission of the night wins. 

https://usatthebiglead.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/1.gif
*source: [TheBigLead](thebiglead.com)*

#### Jim Miller
Jim Miller was a stalwart in the top 10 rankings from 2010-2014. The last 2 years have been less kind to him: Jim has lost 4 of his last 6 fights, but he is coming off a TKO win vs MMA legend Takanori Gomi, and won the previous fight against Joe Lauzon. He is known for his strong wrestling base, durability, and is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt.

#### Breakdown
This is a rematch of a 2012 fight of the year candidate. Jim Miller nearly finished Lauzon in the first round, but Lauzon survived and came back to nearly win the fight in the 3rd round before succumbing to a unanimous decision victory. This fight should go differently: Jim is at a later stage of his career and I don’t think he can keep up with Lauzon’s activity. I expect Lauzon to pour on the damage and win via stoppage in the 3rd round.

# Other Reasons To Watch This Card
## 1. It’s Free!
Last week there were some excellent fights on pay per view, headlined by superstar Conor McGregor. But to watch these fights you either had to pay upwards of $60 to order the PPV, or travel to a bar that likely had a cover and overpriced drinks and food to watch it. This week every fight is free on FOX and the card is over by 7PM PST and 10PM EST so there is plenty of time to still enjoy your Saturday night afterwards.

## 2. The winner of the evenly matched main event likely gets a title shot
Demian Maia is currently ranked #5 in the Welterweight division and Carlos Condit is ranked #6. The winner of this fight probably faces the winner of Stephen Thompson and Tyron Woodley for the title

## 3. Exciting Fighters
The 8 fighters on the main card have combined for **49** post fight of the night bonuses. That’s over 6 awards per fighter, *most fighters have less than 6 fights in the UFC.*

### Free, relevant, and exciting fights? Why wouldn’t you watch? Tune in Saturday night!

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

My name is Ryan Daut and I would love to have you as a follower. [Click here](https://steemit.com/@daut44) to go to my profile page, then click [Follow](https://steemit.com/@daut44) in the upper right corner if you would like to see my blogs and articles regularly. My interests include poker, fantasy sports, MMA, football, basketball, rock climbing, dogs, health and fitness, mathematics, astrophysics, cryptocurrency, and computer gaming. 

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Other MMA articles you can read:
[Andrarchy watches UFC 202](https://steemit.com/video/@andrarchy/ufc-202-andrarchy-watches-mcgregor-v-diaz) by @andrarchy
[My postfight analysis and prefight history of McGregor vs Diaz.](https://steemit.com/ufc/@daut44/ufc-202-mcgregor-vs-diaz-prefight-history-and-postfight-analysis)

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[Life is full of gambling](https://steemit.com/life/@daut44/life-is-full-of-gambling)
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