I still remember the enthusiasm with which the crypto market greeted the launch of the Bitcoin futures, in December last year. I confess I was one of the enthusiast guys, although, somewhere in the back of my mind, there was still a voice whispering incessantly that, wherever WallStreet sets their foot in, no grass will ever grow again.

Since December 2017, Bitcoin price went from 20k to 6.5k. 

And now, all the clues are leading to a very significant root cause: the Bitcoin futures prices.

Like I already told you more than one hundred times, in my daily market snapshots,  I'm not a trader. I am just a crypto enthusiast and I don't make any risky moves, nor do I brag that I did any, but actually didn't. When analyzing a potential investment in a crypto project (being it money, time, or resources) I rely a lot on personal experience (being my own boss for almost 20 years kinda helps) and, to a certain extent, on intuition.

But when my intuition aligns with what people way more clever than me are saying, I kinda feel relieved. Like in this case, for instance, with this Bitcoin futures thing.

In an [interview for Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-14/bitcoin-futures-fueling-gut-wrenching-declines-tom-lee-says) a couple a days ago, Tom Lee from Fundstrat, a popular crypto supporter, declared that Bitcoin price plunges are synchronized with, wait for it, wait for it, ta-daa: "Bitcoin futures price expiration".

Here's the relevant piece from the interview:

>  If a trader is long Bitcoin and short the futures, as contracts move closer to expiry, holders may sell a large share of the coins at volume weighted average price (VWAP) to minimize tracking error. But near expiration, may sell the remaining Bitcoin, causing the price to drop, leaving the short position in the futures to close "with a handsome profit."

You don't have to be a financial genius to get the gist of it, even if the technical terms are confusing: "there's more money to be made by shorting Bitcoin if it falls from 20k to 6.6k, then going long on it if it goes from 6.5k to 7.5k". 

And that's because, until the existence of futures, there wasn't any way to short the Bitcoin.

There you go, now you have it, and there are a lot of sharks out there playing with it.

What's the consequence of all this, you asked? 

Well, it is my understanding that this trend will continue for as long as there will be more money to be made in shorts, than in longs. That means big institutional whales will keep accumulating until they gathered as much supply as they can, and, then and only then, a new bull run will start. Only this time around, the biggest supply will be in the hands of institutional traders, not individuals. Or, to be clearer, anyone who's panic selling will have their assets given away basically for free.

How long this will take? I have no idea, because there are so many parameters. But probably at the end of fall, beginning of winter, we will witness the beginning of another bull run.

And this one will probably be an order of magnitude higher than he last one, in December last year.

_Once again, I'm not a trader, this is not trading advice, and you've been warned. Just sayin'..._
***
_I'm a serial entrepreneur, blogger and ultrarunner. You can find me mainly on my blog at [Dragos Roua](http://dragosroua.com) where I write about productivity, business, relationships and running. Here on Steemit you may stay updated by following me @dragosroua._
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