![btcbeakwheredowegobanner.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmSbiSAqrj9u2Ys4SWTGTw28jcLdtzA2RSnU2JhVke2GnV/btcbeakwheredowegobanner.png)

Hey Steemians, today I was doing a quick analysis of what's going on with the prices of STEEM and BTC today. 

**This is my first analysis/speculation post!**

 It will be short, but feel free to leave constructive criticism in the comments. 

Keep in mind I'm a total amateur, anything I write on this blog is NOT investment advice. 

Anything that you read about crypto before on my blog are just my thoughts. So is anything I will ever write in the future. You should definitely double check anything I write, do your own research and think for yourself.

# BTC in a sparrow's beak shape

![btcbeak20thmarch.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmTm2tDw55FemdatyRRPhkeaio8CAzhk4WysrDdj9VHBS1/btcbeak20thmarch.png)

My thoughts for today are simple. Bitcoin's resistance and support are joining togather making a shape that reminds me of a sparrow's beak. The pressure is rising from both sides. You can see that on YouTube. The amount of bullishness by main crypto youtubers is crazy in these times. These people have big crypto investments. Therefore, they want to help push the price of BTC through the resistance so it continues the bull market. 

**The question is, will they succeed?**

The resistance line seems harder to break than the support. I think if the support brakes the fall will be quick, while the other scenario will give birth to a continuation of the bull run, but much more relaxed than in the December bubble.

# STEEM on a decline both in BTC and dollar value

![steemdollar20march.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmY2C4XtKbeXB3KPu1xVq47qU6cZXNLiByQ7g1j7hobeiC/steemdollar20march.png)
Above, STEEM against the US dollar from ATH to now in an hourly chart with fib channel.

STEEM is in a definite downward channel since the beggining of January. That is very bad for all the people holding STEEM power. That's why I don't like locking up my assets like that, in most cases they are better off liquid on an exchange or atleast in the wallet. I guess that's anyone's choice, a very risky one... Just keep in mind:

**When you lock up STEEM in STEEM power, you are betting long-term on the price of STEEM.**
 
If you're not a risk taker, it's best to keep a smaller amount of STEEM in STEEM power. I've heard 15 SP is enough to let you post during times of network congestion.

Below, STEEM against BTC from ATH until now in an hourly chart.
![steembtc20march.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmNS659qsjQ682LAWL93EekLh8VyYv1Emo8TRy3XQBNBfV/steembtc20march.png)

As you can see, BTC is a lot stronger than STEEM during a market crash. We'll see if it stays that way! Due to the inflationary nature of STEEM, I think that's most likely. Also, in a week we'll see what happens with the Bitcoin's sparrow beak situation.

What do you think,

**Will BTC go back up in a bull run or continue the bear market?**

**How big is the probability for STEEM to get out of the downward channel?**

Thank you for reading, leave your fire down in comments!

With love,
@freegardens!
![baNNER3.JPG](https://steemitimages.com/DQmTHx12RR2S9LysVPxwwuc7ipGr27jmCaw42yJJJRG7zzs/baNNER3.JPG)