# Let's Have a Look at the 12-Hour Candlestick Chart of Steem/BTC on the Bittrex Crypto-Exchange, Shall We?

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<a href="http://imgur.com/4Dx0Xww"><img src="http://i.imgur.com/4Dx0Xww.png" title="source: imgur.com" /></a>

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# ...And a Zoom in on that 12-Hour Chart...

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<a href="http://imgur.com/n1Kek82"><img src="http://i.imgur.com/n1Kek82.png" title="source: imgur.com" /></a>

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# From a Purely Technical (Analysis) Perspective...

We see price sitting at a *conflence zone* of support between:

1.) the *Bullish Bat Harmonic Pattern* (orange triangle patterns with sides X, A, B, C, and D - completed at D) - see more about the structure on [this post](https://steemit.com/advancedharmonicpatterns/@jamesbrown/advanced-harmonic-trading-patterns-excel-spreadsheet)

2.) AB = CD *measured move* (price leg AB, represented by the higher red line on the chart, is cloned and we project a price correction by pasting that line to the top of the minor correction, we call this projected move, the lower of the two red lines, CD)

3.) The *horizontal support zone* (third yellow box down from the top of the chart).

4.) (Nothing to do with confluence, but a bullish sign) Steem broke out of the down-trend price channel (down-sloping parallel black lines that contain the AB = BC measured move)

Take these four things together and we have built a strong bullish (counter-trend) case on the current Steem/BTC market.  It's not often that we'll see this many counter-trend (possible point of trend reversal) patterns/ support zones come together at the same time, meaning it's an area that makes sense to make a trade, so long as our reward to risk profile on the trade is palatable (ie we can afford to risk what we'll lose if our stop-loss on the trade is hit). 

# How I Trade it:

If you look at the first chart (highest up on this post) you'll find two rectangle boxes towards the right edge, each with a green section on the top and a red on the bottom - those represent *long positions* (buys), wherein the red portion represents the *risk* of the trade and the green the *reward*.  So, as you can see, there are two suggested trades.  Both the targets and stop-losses of these trades are based on the Bullish Bat Pattern (BBP) trading system (targets at 38.2% and 61.8% retracement of AD of the pattern and stop below X).

In this case, point *X* of BBP is the lowest price that Steem has reached on the Bittrex exchange (shown on the chart by the red horizontal dotted line), so price would have to make a new all-time low on the exchange in order to trigger the stop-losses.

I give a rough estimate on the chart of what to expect on the reward potential, compared to risk (RR).  

The more conservative trade (trade #1) has a RR of about 3.4, the more aggressive (trade #2) is around 5.4.  So placing a risk of $100 on each trade ($200 total risk on the two trades together), would translate into about $340 + $540, or $880 of potential profit (assuming both targets are hit).  $200 risk to $880 reward ain't bad, especially when considering that harmonic patterns like the BBP are, in my experience, all better than 33% "winners" (first targets hit before stop-loss hit) and the strong confluence of the other support types, in this case, makes for even a higher probability of getting a winner (I'm thinking better than 40%, at the very least, but probably closer to 50%, or better).

# Setting Up the Desired Dollar-Risk Amount on the Trade:

If you're interested in a (free to download and use) excel file that makes it fast and simple to accurately calculate how much capital has to be put up for leveraged and un-leveraged trade positions, based only on the planned entry price, stop-loss price, and desired dollar-risk amount - shared from the Microsoft Cloud storage service - check out [THIS HERE LINK](https://steemit.com/free/@jamesbrown/free-download-excel-spreadsheet-that-calculates-risk-for-leveraged-trades-also-a-useful-tool-as-a-trade-journal).

# Just to Be Clear:

This is a trade that I'm actually taking.  This is in no way a suggestion that you should make this trade.  I post this only for educational purposes.

# Follow My Trades:

See all the trades that I post here on Steemit by searching #mytrades

### Below are links to my previous trades:

[My Trades #1: Short S&P 500 CFCD (FXCM)](https://steemit.com/mytrades/@jamesbrown/my-trades-1-short-s-and-p-500-cfcd-fxcm)

[My Trades #2: Long Bitcoin/ USD (Coinbase)](https://steemit.com/mytrades/@jamesbrown/my-trades-2-long-bitcoin-usd-coinbase)

# Observe How My Trades Pan Out:

See the foll-ups (results) to my trades @ #mytradefollowups

### Below are links to up-to-date trade follow-ups:

[Follow-Up to Trade #1 - S&P 500 Short (Target Hit!)](https://steemit.com/stockmarket/@jamesbrown/follow-up-to-trade-1-s-and-p-500-short-target-hit)

# Thank You for Your Time and Good Luck on Your Trades :)