Why the price of EOS will continue to rise during its ICO phase.
eos·@japan1·
0.000 HBDWhy the price of EOS will continue to rise during its ICO phase.
<html> <h3><img src="https://d340lr3764rrcr.cloudfront.net/Images/resources/eos-generic-tm.jpg" width="728" height="548"/></h3> <h3><em>Disclaimer: I do hold EOS. I am an EOS fanboy. This is not financial advice.</em></h3> <p>I bought my long term EOS investment at 50 cents. A few of my friends and telegram associates said I was a lunatic, but in this article I really wanted to go into a bit of my thinking and why I think EOS will continue to rise up to and beyond the end of the ICO period.</p> <p>When predicting price actions, I often look for similar models and comparisons in order to establish trends. In the case of EOS, we have quite a unique model in terms of its ICO.</p> <p>For those that don’t know, the EOS ICO runs for 350 days; from 26th June 2017 until June 1st 2018. Every single day there is a period. In each period 2 million tokens are available and are distributed by weight to the contributors. So if only 1 person has donated 1 ETH in the ICO on that day, that one person gets 2 million EOS tokens. If 10 people donate 1 ETH each, each of those people get 200,000 EOS tokens. If one person donated 99 ETH and another 1 ETH, that person who donated 1 ETH would receive 1% of the 2 million EOS tokens.</p> <p><br> Now, this model lends itself to something not seen before in ICO’s, since the supply is fixed per day,<strong> the figurative ‘cost’ of each token is depicted by volume.</strong></p> <h1><br> <strong>The Ethereum Pre-sale</strong></h1> <p><br> The Ethereum pre-sale sparked my interested because it’s one of the few ICO’s that ran within a fairly lengthy time period. The Ethereum pre-sale took place from Tuesday 22 July 2014 to Tuesday 2nd September 2014; 42 days.</p> <p>The price of Ether was initially set to 2000 ETH per BTC for 14 days, and then linearly decreased until it reached 1337 ETH per BTC.</p> <p>What interested me, was the volume that occurred over the 42 day period. </p> <p><img src="https://imgur.com/a/zaEVf"/><img src="https://i.imgur.com/ZPkxYI1.png"/></p> <p>Source: <a href="https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/08/08/ether-sale-a-statistical-overview/"> <strong>https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/08/08/ether-sale-a-statistical-overview/</strong> </a></p> <p>You can clearly see two main clusters - one at the start and one at the end, with the majority of the lull being between 30-60% of the time period. I.e. the ‘middle’ is where we see the least volume on average. The end of the pre-sale shows a huge influx of volume. </p> <h1> <strong>How this relates to the EOS crowdsale</strong> </h1> <p><img src="https://i.imgur.com/KKrxMyH.png"/></p> <p>Total ETH contributed to the EOS crowdsale vs period number. This is a screen shot taken from <a href="http://eosscan.io/">eosscan.io</a> on 21/12/17, period number 181 out of 350. I have badly photoshopped it to show that the periods are not finished yet (i.e. there is still more room on the chart). </p> <p>Do you see a comparison between the ETH pre-sale volume and the EOS crowdsale volume? </p> <ul> <li>Big volume at the start</li> <li>A 'lull' midway through</li> </ul> <p> The final piece of the puzzle is the MASSIVE volume that comes at the end of the ETH pre-sale. I have no doubt in my mind that this is coming. There will be drivers for this. </p> <ul> <li>Big industry players announcing blockchain applications built on EOS.</li> <li>Existing blockchain projects moving to the EOS platform.</li> <li>Announcements from block.one regarding the distribution of the $1 billion set aside for application development.</li> <li>The continual ahead-of schedule development of the EOS platform, including Dawn 3.0 release on January 31st 2018.</li> <li>General crypto market bullishness going into 2018, and hype around “Blockchain 2.0” platforms and applications.</li> </ul> <h1> <strong>There’s a catch</strong></h1> <p> … and it’s a good one. When the huge volume went in at period 0 (651,902.18 ETH was contributed), 200 million EOS tokens were available to be distributed. This obviously kept the price of an EOS token relatively low by today’s standards at around 80 cents.</p> <p>For the rest of the periods, only 2 million EOS tokens are available daily. The last period (#350) still only has 2 million tokens available. If for example, we saw the same amount of volume as day 0 on day 350, that would give you just 3.06 EOS tokens per Ether. At todays Ether price ($820), <strong>that’s $286.3 per EOS token.</strong></p> <p><strong>But that would be a $280 billion market cap!</strong></p> <p>I know.</p> <p>At the time of writing this article, the entire crypto market cap is $642bn. 9 weeks ago, it was 163bn, an increase of almost 4 times. The crowdsale ends in another 9 weeks, who knows where we will be by then? At this moment in time, money is literally flooding into cryptocurrency.</p> <h1><strong>Why did I buy at 0.50 cents?</strong></h1> <p>If we are to repeat the Ethereum crowdsale, the optimum time would be around the 50% mark of distribution. </p> <p>As I mentioned, during period 0, rather than 2 million tokens being available, 200 million tokens were made available. 20% of the entire supply of EOS was sold during the first day. This causes a bit of a skew in time vs distribution. </p> <p>Therefore, do we take the “middle” period to be time (i.e. period no. 175/300), or do we take it as 50% token distribution? </p> <p>In my thoughts, since supply fits into the token price equation, that was far more influential on the price. </p> <p>So when the EOS token price was at 50 cents, 50% of the EOS tokens had already been distributed. For me, that was the ‘middle’ of the ICO phase.</p> <h1><strong>Conclusion</strong></h1> <p>To me, it is clear as day that we will see a repeat of the Ethereum pre-sale in terms of the volume that will enter into the EOS ICO during the later periods.</p> <p>Since the ICO is structured in a way that means increased volume effectively increases the “price” of each token, I have little to no doubt in my mind that the price of EOS will continue to rise into and beyond the end of the ICO, to potentially unimaginable levels.</p> <p><strong>More details on the Ethereum Pre-Sale, written by Vitalik himself: </strong><a href="https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/08/08/ether-sale-a-statistical-overview/"><strong>https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/08/08/ether-sale-a-statistical-overview/</strong></a> </p> <p><strong>Statistics on EOS ICO:</strong> <a href="https://eosscan.io/"><strong>https://eosscan.io/</strong></a> </p> <p><strong>If you don’t actually know what EOS is and why the tokens have value, here is</strong> <strong>a great analogy - </strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svYvTkABDvo"><strong>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svYvTkABDvo</strong></a> </p> <p><strong>Follow me on twitter:</strong> <a href="http://www.twitter.com/rektkid"><strong>www.twitter.com/rektkid</strong></a> </p> <p>Donate:<br> BTC: 39dub8ahZbKswNKu1xf9tAxQdktth7kBXm<br> BCH: 17FHVadMqiebsnTCnhpXFjiPW7nmi9JbYZ<br> LTC: LSPYvpW1gLhJj9dC31PsqV9UYJWNNEJKoG<br> ETH: 0x84a8559ef67224f4801A8cBD2479807D50f15dc1 </p> </html>