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In 2018, Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff boldly forecasted that Bitcoin was far more likely to crash to a mere $100 than to ever reach the soaring milestone of $100,000. 

At the time, his outlook was rooted in a skeptical view of cryptocurrencies, expecting them to falter under regulatory pressure and lose value as governments cracked down on their use. Fast forward to 2025, and Rogoff has openly admitted that he was wrong about Bitcoin’s fate.

Rogoff’s original forecast underestimated the resilience and adaptability of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. He hoped that U.S. and international regulators would swiftly implement stringent controls to stifle illicit activities such as money laundering and tax evasion, which frequently involved cryptocurrencies. Instead, regulators have largely taken a cautious and often inconsistent approach, allowing Bitcoin to thrive in what Rogoff describes as the “underground economy.”

More importantly, the economist failed to foresee how Bitcoin’s role would evolve. Over the past several years, Bitcoin has gained significant institutional acceptance, with investment firms, corporations, and even governments embracing it as a store of value and a hedge against traditional financial risks. This broad adoption has driven Bitcoin’s price to surpass $120,000, a considerable turnaround from Rogoff’s dire forecast.

Poor regulatory coordination and a deepening conflict of interest have further supported Bitcoin’s rise. Many regulators themselves hold crypto assets, inadvertently reducing aggressive crackdowns. Kenneth Rogoff now acknowledges that his forecast was overly pessimistic and did not fully grasp how regulatory dynamics and market demand would unfold. 

Rather than crashing to $100, Bitcoin has become a robust fixture in the global financial landscape, challenging traditional economic thinking and assumptions along the way.

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