Which will be bigger in five years? iPhone or Android?

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·@leguna·
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Which will be bigger in five years? iPhone or Android?
![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/leguna/EoyVGWizDa3qTsTG2WoowiM7tgPUyAHcyxzAJuMy9TpXD9xUUjfZrwgqWcMV8b6d2AS.png)



900 million people use iPhones globally.
113 million of them are in the US.
47% of smart phone users in the US are iPhone.

3 billion people use Android globally.
129 million in the US.
53% of smart phones users in the US are Android.

# Globally, Android has a major lead.

71% of all smart phones, versus iPhone at 28%, with smaller players like Samsung taking a point.

I did a poll two days ago asking people who they thought would be bigger in five years, iPhone or Android.

51% said iPhone
38% said Android 
13% said unsure

iPhone won heavily, but clearly the majority of people are wrong, due to it being impossible Apple will catch up in five years.

Also, this is why it’s likely Android will actually take a bigger lead globally.

Breaking it down, the North America is nearly a 50/50 tie between iPhone and Android, which changes from time to time.

Globally though, a really different story.

81% of phones in Asia are Android.
90% in South/Latin America are Android.
67% in Europe are Android.
84% in Africa are Android. 

This shows the global advantage Android has as a whole, but it only gets better for Android with population increases.

The US has 330 million people currently.
423 million is the projected population for 2050.

746 million people is the population of Europe.
A series of projections there, but expected to be stagnant.

4.5 billion is the population of Asia.
5.3 billion is the 2050 population.

665 million is the population of Latin America.
780 million is the 2050 population.

1.3 billion is the population of Africa.
2.5 billion is the population of 2050.

Android is bigger in developing regions of the world, holding in many cases 4 to 1 leads over iPhone. 

This makes a case that while America could continue to be 50/50, globally Android could move grow from a 71% market share to something more in line with 80-90%.

# And final part, is this a bad thing for Apple?

**No.**

Android is a ton of different phones, with tons of companies using that software, where Google, Samsung and others all have different models.

Apple is the only group making iPhones and they normally outsell any single Android device, while also having a customer base with a little more money, which does lead to higher sales for things such as the App Store.

Apple also benefits from the global smart phone market, with things such as AirPods.

Apple has 70%+ of the global wireless headphones market, sold 100 million in 2020 and they are way higher margin over any phone.

# Final thoughts

Demographic and geolocation are a big factor in the results you get from random sample polling. Particularly the demographic of people who follow you and participate. Things look rosy for Apple if largely participants from the western countries. Otherwise, it's a huge W for Android.
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