I'm feel a tentative, and perhaps temporary optimism since yesterday's opinion piece on the Iran situation. 

It kind of highlights and reminds us that everything we hear in media, whether it's mainstream or social, is nothing but speculation and inflated opinions. 

The perhaps unique power of this circumstance is the absolute division of Principles vs Figureheads. MAGA has been well and truly split in this way. Both want peace, but reaching peace has many avenues and each avenue is littered with mines. 

It's hard for me to say which one is objectively correct because both of them are so emotional and warped by different facts and propaganda - The Fog of War. But the 'end' result shows that everything we hear is based on basically nothing tangible, and everything going on behind the scenes is far more substantial than we think. 

It seems what leaders and militaries are saying up front are face-saving tactics and the narrative underneath is in remarkable contrast. For example, people think Iran wants to exterminate all Jews. Possible, except there are actually Jews in Iran, up to 20,000, a diaspora that has been around for millenia. As far as my quick browsing shows, they can even practice their religion somewhat freely. 

Iran instead wants the *idea of the nation state of Israel* to be destroyed. And this has been a point of contention for a very long time. Even Hamas, whose own manifesto explicitly talks about killing all Jews, was redacted and quietly re-worded to say 'Zionists'. What are we to take from that? Take your pick. Needles to say, it's not all as clear cut as meets the eye. 

Similarly, in wartime, it has become very apparent that Iran's Allies are not as loyal as one might think. They spent years funding various arms of terrorist groups to have their backs, and they *all* backed out, quietly condemning Israel as if an uninterested father forcing himself to cheer on his son at a football game.

As for the big players, China and Russia, some members announced some dick-waving sentiment, but for the most part, they do not want to get involved either. Why would they? Closing the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran threatened, would benefit precisely zero people. In fact, about 85% of the oil goes to *Asia*, largely China. Naturally China would hate that and is Iran expecting them to turn on the USA in response? Unlikely.

Russia you'd think would benefit from the rise in oil prices but even they came out saying it's not a great idea. In fact, they even officially and publicly posted a rather humiliating *reminder* of a clause in their agreements stating that, should Iran specifically get into a war, Russia **does not have to get involved**. And they left it at that.

It seems then, that Iran are functionally alone. They are already weak, and they know it. They do not have the mandate of the 92 million people they rule over, and they *needed* a way out. This is why it's quite fascinating when Trump posted this:


![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/mobbs/23vspBrjuUKiPQqseRg3xNpgefDNsQokmyQ4DmELFRLB5nNkAngNL2kWFYigXRWKr9ra8.png)

In fact, Qatari sources stated similar, that Iran let the Qatari defenses know what was coming and to prepare in advance. This isn't even new for Iran generally, and seems very much about saving face than getting any revenge. 

I mean, the missiles represented the number of bombs the US plonked on their nuclear facilities, and then that was it. It was symbolic, and a quiet way of admitting defeat. The stock market flipped 180 degrees within seconds of the 'attack', as everybody behind the scenes fundamentally understood what was going on - I was watching a livestream as I slowly drifted off to  sleep last night that was unfolding this whole thing as they happened.

There was just too much at stake for Iran's leadership since nobody has their back, what's a couple of busted facilities between you & me?

As I said in my previous post, *even if some greater extended regional war broke out*, it would be infinitely preferably to a regional nuclear proliferation which would be a likely outcome if Iran got its way. 

But what next? I've no idea, and that's the point. None of us do. No matter how well informed we think we are, we're just speculating. It's entirely possible, for all we know, that Iran wanted this whole thing to happen as a more face-saving approach to removing sanctions. Rather than looking weak and giving up their nukes to Americans like dogs giving a ball back, the US had to pry it from their 'cold dead hands' so to speak, and then real 'peace talks' could begin, The Iranian leadership can get their footing again and re-establish their regional dominance, and so forth.

I dunno how likely that is, but it's not impossible. The problem is we all have such little faith in the procedure because of, well, the entirety of American and Middle Eastern history. 


![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/mobbs/23xL7UZ5qfjgfQSi2ifcWen29zb8KKJuLzaUo2C3ZdqzFR7JxZEEubjGsngXRtjGxTHK6.png)

The problem is, things are now turning into yet another extended point of global tension. This could be a fantastic Nobel Peace Prize award winning moment for Trump. But the Uranium is still there, and the Iranian sentiment still thrives. Sleeper cells in the US still exist somewhere. Israel's belligerent and alarmist attitude still persists. 

It's touch and go, and as JD Vance said, the next step is talks & negotiations for 'the coming years'. Great.

I am surprisingly feeling more hopeful than a good half of the MAGA folk. If there's one thing I feel resonates with Trump's image is his anti-war stance. He never said that doesn't mean he wouldn't take action when needed, but his record technically still remains clean: The only president not to start any new wars. 

> War: Sustained, organized armed conflict between states, often with formal declarations or significant escalation. 

Some bombs sneakily dropped in a hit-and-run, followed by a tentative ceasefire and discussions is hardly what I would consider starting a war. 

# Other Considerations & Consequences

It's going to be a major problem for Trump with his voter base split like this. Or should I say, for JD Vance who presumably wants Trump's spot next election. Trump's legacy is under threat but certainly time will evolve and mature on this. 

What may be a fascinating unravelling is the perception of the USA on the global stage. Recently, Trump has been marketed as weak, backtracking on his tariffs, cracking down on riots in authoritarian ways showing insecurity. 

But if you put yourself in Putin or Xi Jinping's shoes and see this whole military plan unfold *flawlessly* (see the B2 bomber plans and specifics, it's **ridiculous**), with bombs not only never before used, but ones that don't exist anywhere else in the world, this is kind of a wake up call to them. It's a confirmation. This Trump guy means business. He's not messing around. He's not just puffing up his tail. 

He's no paper tiger. 

Fortunately, it appears Iran is a paper tiger with a few ballistics, and I would assume US defence knew this rather intimately. 

So yeah, like I say, I see ground for optimism here. There's **absolutely** a plethora of roads that can be taken which are disastrous and even a few that still end up with nuclear proliferation. One wrong move, one tasteless AI video is all it takes. 

But at least as I write this, it looks vaguely like we're taking a better path.