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YORK 2.55

9/2 Orion's Bow, 8/1 Gin In The Inn, Out Do,
10/1 Final Venture, Teruntum Star, 12/1 Danzeno,
12/1 Foolaad, George Bowen, Private Matter,
14/1 Golden Apollo, 16/1 Classic Seniority,
16/1 Ower Fly, 20/1 El Hombre, Flying Pursuit,
20/1 Quick Look, Tomily, 33/1 Dark Defender,
33/1 Lucky Beggar, 50/1 Firmdecisions.

Class 2 Handicap over 6f
34 similar races in the month of May

Very high drawn horses  
Have struggled here since 2015
In 6f York races
Horses drawn 16 and more
Have a 0-76 record in the last 3 seasons
GIN IN THE INN is drawn 19 of 19
That would be enough to put me off him
DANZERO is a 7yo drawn 18
Horses aged 7 + are 0-63 in this since 2006
OWER FLYER is drawn 18 of 20
Never won off his current rating
Never won within 2 grades of this race

Horses that raced over 5f this year
Have a poor 2-65 record
Horses aged 5 of more
Running this year over 5f are 0-43
ORIONS BOW the favourite fails this
He is a 7yo and comes from 5f

April May June
Class 2 Handicaps over 6f
Horses from 5f
Aged 5 or more
Running this season
Absent more than 2 weeks
Return a 0-62 record
ORIONS BOW fails this
LUCKY BEGGAR also fails this 0-62 angle
FINAL VENTURE has some start form
But he also fails the same 0-62 statistic
FOOLAAD also fails it and needs a career best

FLYING PURSUIT may need more runs
No 4yo won with over 18 runs
All 22 lost and TOMILY has this problem

Horses aged 7 + are 0-63 in this since 2006
OUT DO is a 9yo absent 83 days
Every class 2 handicap in the flat season
Any time of year on turf
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent over 19 days
Have a 0-86 record in all of them
OUT DO fails this 0-86 statistic
FIRM DECISIONS fails it as well
DARK DEFENDER doesn't look good enough
QUICK LOOK's numbers are on softer ground
Never won off this mark or in this class
CLASSIC SENIORITY has a chance
He probably just needs a career best
Not sure he is ready to do that
All his wins came in June and after
May just need another run this season
EL HOMBRE didn't do enough last time
And no 4yo won coming from a 7f race
Without at least several more recent runs
GOLDEN APPOLO is a 4yo debutant
He is a bit too exposed with 15 starts
No 4yo won first time out with over 13
Similar races in April May and June
Show all 27 like him were beaten
Not sure you want a debutant draw 16
York 6f races
Any time of year since 2009
Horses absent more than 53 days
Drawn 9 or higher
Return a 0-57 record
GOLDEN APPOLO fails that
OUT DO also has this problem
GEORGE BOWEN has a chance
He finished 6th in this race last year
But he is now 0-22 in Class 2 races
Up in class and not sure he's this class

Shortlist

PRIVATE MATTER is shortlistable
Against him both wins were on soft ground
I can argue he is well handicapped
And has far ground numbers that can win
But both wins also came in small fields
Too eary to pidgeon hole him after 15 runs
But delivering on a fast in a big field
Is something we canm only know after the race

TERRUNTUM STAR is a classy sprinter
If he improves as he should from his debut
He could well be good enough to take this
Even with topweight and a rating of 103

Selection

£2.50 Each Way TERRUNTUM STAR 10/1

£2.50 Each Way PRIVATE MATTER 12/1




YORK 4.05

9/4 Highgarden, 3/1 Ceilidhs Dream,
7/2 Give And Take, 6/1 Ejtyah, 6/1 Lubinka,
14/1 Dancing Brave Bear, 25/1 Expensive Liaison.

Musidora Stakes

Trial for the Epsom Oaks

CEILIDHS DREAM isn't in the Oaks
She won a 3yo maiden over 8f last time
Horses from 3yo maidens
Under 3 career starts
Have a 0-19 record in this
CEILIDHS DREAM has this problem
She is not matchable to a past winner
She also has this breeding issues

Horses sired by Oasis Dream
Running over 9f or more
Class 2 and higher
With under 5 career starts
Return a 0-56 record so far
CEILIDHS DREAM is rejected

DANCING BRAVE BEAR won both starts
This race will require significantly more
I don't see her being good enough
EXPENSIVE LIASON looks vulnerable
Numbers not good enough after 4 runs

EJTHAH raced once last year
Nothing wrong with her profile at all
the 2013 and 2014 winners were similar
The 2014 winner came from the same stable
The question marks are the ground
And how fit and ready she might be

LUBINKA has 4 career starts
She has the best numbers so far
That was based on her last run as a 2yo
She was a 150/1 chance in that race
That doesn't inspire great confidence
So no surprise if she does take this race
But she also comes down from a 12f race
Uncomfortable about her doing that
No past winner won this down in distance
You can also argue none came from the sand
Too many unorthodox things about her
 
GIVE AND TAKE was 2nd last time at Sandown
Her sire hasn't bred a winner beyond a mile
Much as it is far too early to assume he won't
It was pre 2005 since a similar type won
Should be competitive butr not first choice

HIGHGARDEN also ran in that race
She was odds on and finished just 3rd
That was her debut and slightly disappointing
But the ground and fitness was to blame
If you look at similar types to her
Horses with 2 runs one last year one this year
That came from a 10f race
The 2016 and 2017 winners did just that
HIGHGARDEN should improve considerably

She has 2 fewer runs than Lubinka
She has 2 fewer runs than Give And Take
So you would expect more improvement

If you look at the Musiroda
And horses that had 4 or more career runs
Since 2006 all 32 that tried were beaten
These days winners with 1-2-3 runs dominate

HIGHGARDEN can improve past these
EJTYAH around 8/1 looks a cheap saver
Given there are only 7 runners

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet HIGHGARDEN 5/2

£1.50 Win Bet EJTYAH 6/1





BATH 5.20

100/30 Dreams Of Glory, 4/1 Dalness Express,
6/1 Fantasy Justifier, 7/1 Mighty Zip, 7/1 Quantum Dot,
8/1 Toolatetodelegate, 16/1 Amberine, 16/1 Celerity,
20/1 Stopdworldnletmeof, 25/1 Jakeboy, 50/1 Delahay,
50/1 Go Charlie, Mostashreqah, Polkadot Princess
66/1 Dramatic Voice.

Handicap between 5f and 6f

Lots of dead wood in this race
Several of these are either outclassed
Or lack the required fitness to win this

Draw statistics can help here
Races under 6f at Bath
Run since 2010
Show horses drawn 14 or more
Have a 1-98 record in the last 8 years
The only winner was a 3yo with a 2 day break
FANTASY JUSTIFIER has Stall 15 of 15
He has not won since 2006 now
Losing run of 20 his draw makes him risky
TOOLATETODELEGATE is drawn 14
Bad draw for a 4yo filly to overcome
She is fit and running well though
But her numbers don't impress much
All her best once have come over 5f
His jockey has a 0-27 record in races under 7f

STOPDWORLDNLETMEOFF is not safe
No horse trained by David Flood is
CELERITY is a modest 4yo filly
She has a 0-38 career record
Her numbers are consistently slow

MIGHTY ZIP has a chance
Recent numbers are average
Not keen on her draw in stall 13 wither

DREAMS OF GLORY is interesting
If you look at his Bath fom
He has won here 5 times before
None of his rivals have ever won here
The downside is his age
He is a 10yo now on the decline

DALNESS EXPRESS is a 5yo
He is fit and running well
His last 3 Racing Post Ratings are 58 57 58
Thats comfortably better than all of these
Based on their modest recent runs
He also has just 14 career starts
And hopefully the chance of improvement
He was a bit unlucky her last time
If he avoids any trouble from Stall 1
He is entitled to go very close

QUANTUM DOT is topweight
I don't see a problem with his profile
He is down in class today
Might have preferred the minimum trip
But should have a major say in this race


Selection

£6 Win Bet QUANTUM DOT 7/1

£2 Win Bet DALNESS EXPRESS 9/2
  
£2 Win Bet DREAMS OF GLORY 4/1






BATH 6.55

5/2 Francophilia, 7/2 Falcon's View,
5/1 Brahms De Clermont, 6/1 Roc Astrale, 13/2 Flintrock,
8/1 Pirate King, Point Of Honour, Sarim,
40/1 Demophon, 66/1 Khazix.

3yo Novice over 11.5f

As explained before
These 3yo and older Novice races
Are a brand new 2018 initiative
Which renders statistics less potent

We still have logic on our side
We have had 169 of these new races

Horses aged 4
Have a pretty modest 5-71 record
None of these won whem unraced

FALCON'S VIEW is an unraced 4yo
I think he must be an unlikely winner
Based on weight for age

Horses aged 4
Give 17lbs away to 3 year olds
And 22lbs to 3 year old fillies

He will have to be pretty good
To give that much weight away
On his racecourse debut
To some potentially improving 3yo's
FALCON'S VIEW is opposed

I'd also prefer to avoid the older horses
ROC ASTRALE has shown ability
But he is also a 4yo giving weight away

POINT OF HONOUR is an unraced 3yo
Could pop up but this 11f a long way
I'd prefer something with experience
SARIM has the same problem
By his sire surprised if he stays on debut

BRAHMS DE CLERMONT is a 7yo
Normally given the weight away
I'd be against a horse his age
But he does have decent hurdle form
No real shock if he were to win this
If his experience kicks into play

FLINTROCK is a 3yo with 1 run
He could improve and play a hand
But he very weak in the market

PIRATE KING has a chance
Well beaten at 50/1 on his sole start
Normally that would put me off him
But that Newbury race is always very good
Not first choice after a 16 length defeat
But I certainly wouldn't rule him out

FRANCOPHILLIA is my choice
She is the only 3yo filly
She gets weight from everything
As much as 22lbs from the 4 year olds
She has raced only once before
Statistically I'd see her as a neutral
What swings it for me is her last race
She was made favourite on her debut
The second favourite was rated 86
Easily good enough to win this race
She was just behind that horse in 3rd
She comes from strong connections

BRAHMS DE CLERMONT now a non runner

Selection

FRANCOPHILLIA 7/4

Win Bet