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As often is the case these days - 

> # *I am in two minds.*



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![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tarazkp/244KNxatB6EaYZVSAJF5G2N2NDp3fuEoUEnumTDdxj2RdwvfJiU8yG6659QmewLnsedFt.png)



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> Do I buy packs for *CONCLAVE ARCANA* or do I not? 

And if I do, what packs do I buy? Because now there are options that come with different percentage chances to get the new "Black Foil" skins, or a guaranteed legendary in the pack, or whatever else there is in the presale. The problem is, those percentages are *meaningless* to me, because as many will attest, my chances of pulling Gold Foil Legendaries in the past, no matter how high I am on the leaderboards, is *fucking atrocious.* I mean - *ludicrously fucking bad.* So bad, that people who consider themselves unlucky, use me as the example to cheer themselves up and say 

>"At least my luck isn't as bad as that poor fucker..."

@azircon and @abh12345 have both said "maybe this time will be different". @revisesociology knows the deal for me though and is a realist, so when I asked about the chance percentages for black foils he said, "for everyone else, or for you?"

> Probability zero.

And this puts me in a sticky situation, because as much as I would like to get some packs, my many past experiences have left me very, very disappointed, while others are ecstatic at the opens they get. It is much like my 50% chance of retaliate or poison, that seems to work 25% of the time. At what point do I cut losses and just say, 

> *Fuck this shit.* 

*Not today apparently.*

Because I did end up buying some packs, and will put the current numbers here to see what the outcome will be, once I apply all the potions, including midnight to open. 

![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tarazkp/23tGW1ehjrJuczeDKPYkC48rY7PWnAK912Ri6Pnw3BySpUZhTd8bg5BXCXV5GgaKg2S5p.png)

Currently, I don't have enough *Midnight Potions* for all, but I will wait to open until later. However, for Conclave Arcana, Legendary potions double both the chances for Legendary cards, and Epic cards also. This means that while I am nowhere near having enough for a max deck, perhaps once the starter packs go on sale I will be able to get the Common and Rares there, and not need too many Epics. I shouldn't need any Legendary cards, or I should have plenty to trade for what I am missing.

>If someone wants to do the math on what I "should" get using all potions on the 200 Legendary packs, feel free.

There is also a "raffle" of 71 cards with ticket entries based on purchase volume. I am currently ranked outside the top 30 in purchases, but I assume that I will get zero of those, as again, I have terrible, terrible, *fucking terrible* luck with any of this supposedly random outcomes.

> Will my luck change? 

Unfortunately, I have very little hope, which means that this might be the last significant purchase I make in Splinterlands. But with the little sliver of hope I hold still, I do hope my luck will change and I can continue playing the game feeling better about it. And I really , really hope that my conflict luck will be better than last time also.

> Will my black luck be better than my gold?

*I am sceptical.*

But I doubled-down still.
 
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]


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