<div class="text-justify">

It has been weird for the last week that I have been largely disengaged from the world of Hive and crypto. This morning, I was looking at various things that I have "ignored" in the sense that I haven't been checking them all too often, like I might have otherwise. I did manage to write a post each day, and I did get to some of the comments, but I didn't get to them all yet. I also haven't been checking crypto markets, or Splinterlands, which is also strange. Not altogether bad though, as it allowed my Energy Points to replenish. 


![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tarazkp/23yJCSqX26k6vc77ESc2K1RfMFAdQw6jsCjTNdumd4jYdN4AWqVHTPu1UC7Nvs6Y8fU7F.jpg)


>I am a Modern Champion 2 player it seems. 

I just can't get into Champion 1, no matter how hard I try. I don't have a complete set of Rebellion, but it is more the RNG luck that I have that keeps killing my attempts. It is almost impossible to get a streak going, however when average luck falls my way, I tend to do okay. For instance, today has been a good day for me, as I have played 11 rounds and won 10 of them.

![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tarazkp/23wWpZbDzwXxocr7oARLMRhV9YFKjbfuhaaJGbB4NpvZAgGjB1m8h5DKBDWR6QJE7QjoB.png)

But it is unsustainable for me, and it will be possible that it will be loss streaks of 10 or more from here on out, losing 300 points very quickly. And it is frustrating when so many of those losses come down to luck, where it could go either way, but rarely my way. The one loss today though, I can deal with, as I was just outplayed. Oh well. 

> More importantly...

*Not overly important in the grand scheme of life.*

The first conflict rages on and there are almost no gold legendaries on the market at all, and some people have put 200K on the sale price - as if that is something someone would do. I have bought some over the last week though, and bought a couple more today. The ones I have been buying are those that allow me to max a card, and today I bought two *Commander Goff* cards, which cleared the market. So, after some adjustments, combining, cooldowns and resets, this is now my heaviest wagon. 

![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tarazkp/23uQrDMjDgB2TcNDP3yfwgoK94xAhHzrwLcjtAKEjqnFPWZME4jXKDxS2wim6o56BZZJR.png)

>Not quite full of gold, but getting there!

So with 19 days left in the first conflict, This is where my chances lay.


![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tarazkp/EoCgdRnYBaPSDzxgA9fkuGEDwSossSnJxrxdP4kECUWWjwxf7bbGs2pF1ZY6Yk42FDD.png)

That is 7 guarantees, and with 308,000 chances generated in the 11 days so far, we are still on track for a ~840,000 total, which means that it is going to be around one card per 210 chances. So for this first conflict, the expectation is around about doubling the guarantee. With the boost I gave with some golds today, I am guessing I will get about 20+20, which is enough for 3 max cards and if lucky, one max Gold Foil. That would be 52,500 + 18,000 CP, to add an extra 70,500 CP to my wagons for conflict 2. 

>That is almost 700,000 collection points/hr

Of course, this is all relative in terms of chances, because what it means is that there will be far more collection points vying for 4000 cards next round, which will decrease the chance of getting cards in the lottery, but the guarantees will be the same, afaik. This is an incentive to buy cards or packs of course, and that is the way it should be. I feel that this is a better approach than just airdropping atop airdrop, atop airdrop - as it essentially forces "old timers" who have benefitted very heavily in the past, to put some more into the game to keep benefitting, if they want these specialty cards at least. It also gives those who were lucky enough to get some gold legendaries, to benefit heavily in their sale. And, gold epics are expensive too.

I have no idea if in the longrun it will be worth it, but I do think that there is a chance that at least I will cover the value of what I have bought in extras, over the space of the 9 conflicts in total. We will see in time. 

*Wagon Up.*

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]



</div>