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![network moon-16x9.jpg](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tarazkp/23u5bKfQiMEoSVvE466oSTj7hBwdmV9ubGZi46ksptA8HSWDTpkvyjzs7nLZqcj3wj3Mw.jpg)



It is interesting to see the changes in value of my Hive account adding 20,000 dollars in a couple hours, but it still being "down" almost 50% from just a few months ago. 


![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tarazkp/Eo6CELGx4DK43f7bd7RFbWCCnhWZDg55WP6d2iVHpVLBM5JC5vf1xdPR7Zv7wFSQ5Q4.png)



*Up* and *Down* are relative terms of course, as they need a reference point of some kind for them to make sense to us. When it comes to price, we generally use the market as an indicator of value, but it doesn't really capture that much of what is actually important. When people are more familiar with a project, then attachment and sentiment are applied and often people "overvalue" something they like. 

But, most people tend to use the highs and lows as indicators of value where for example, Bitcoin is currently about 30% down on its high in the 60Ks a few months back. However, this doesn't mean it is low, does it? I know quite a few people who bought *and held* Bitcoin when it was in the 100s of dollars, so for them 47,000 dollars a coin is very much up. 400x gains are nothing to sneeze at. 

It is interesting though, as we all have a sense of the value of a token at any given point in time, but a few days, weeks or months either side, our internal sense of pricing could be very different. At the start of the year HIVE was sitting at around 11 cents and many people didn't buy because it was too expensive and now at 500% *up* it is 5x more expensive, but those same people are comparing it to the 90 cent prices back in April, so it is *down.* For those that did buy at 11 cents, are you happy?

Many aren't, because they see that they could have sold at the peak and bought back at the low and now be getting extended gains on the way back up. Let's say that we bought some at the low. 

1000 HIVE bought in January = 110 dollars.
1000 HIVE sold in April = 900 dollars.
900 dollars of HIVE in June = 4,200 HIVE.
4,200 HIVE sold today = 2100 dollars.

That is about a 20x gain on HIVE this year with two buys and two sells *if* hitting the peaks and the dips. 

How'd you do?

Well, most people don't hit the dips, nor do they hit the peaks, because if most people did, the shape of the curves would change. It is only a few that can really sell at the high and the price they get is because others *didn't sell* at the same time, something many people tend to forget on Hive for example. Over the years people have mocked me for holding HIVE and not selling, but it is people like me holding that allowed them to get their sells in. The funny thing is, some of those same people think it isn't fair that they don't get support on the platform, which is an interesting position considering that their sells were supported by stake*holders.* 

Not everyone is cut out for hodling and it isn't just because people have bills to pay and need to spend what they get. For most, the reason they are unable to hold is because they have a strong aversion to loss, meaning that they sell for what they see as a gain, so that they get something. However, "high" and "low" is relative to the moment, so if a person sold today at 50c and it went to 40c tomorrow, they would feel pretty good about their decision, but if a month from now it went to a dollar, they might have a different feeling. If however, they sold for 50c today and bought at 40c tomorrow, a month down the track they would be feeling pretty good after adding an extra 20% in gains. 

Most people don't buy back though, do they? If they did, there would be a lot of people who sold with far larger accounts than they have, but again, this would skew the markets, meaning that they wouldn't drop as far. The reason that there are some accounts that are much larger than others is of course that when the markets are *down* they buy, while those who have a loss aversion or think they can buy in again lower for additional coin are selling. 

A year or two from now, I might look back at this post and say, *I wish I had sold.* Or, I could look back and say, *I'm glad I held.* For me, a year down the track and I will have at least 10% more HIVE than I have today because of curation and while for some that is not attractive, for more it is. this is part of the market sentiment and while a lot of people are pooling tokens on Eth for 6% a year, I can beat that with Hive, as well as fulfill my entertainment requirements along the way, as well as many other of my needs. 

50 cents is not high *in my opinion* - but then, neither is a dollar. It just depends on what we use as a reference of value. 

11 cents was very low.  

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]



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