This is something that I spent a lot of time digging into.

When it comes to AI, one of the key factors is data.  Without that, a company is screwed. 

It is a situation which has many companies scrambling.  Obviously, the world of Large Language Models (LLM) has spurred a storm within the online world.  Everyone is looking to get their hands on more data since new iterations are requiring more data.  Of course, this is not the only factor but it is one of the key variables.

Real World AI (or embedded AI) is a similar situation.  Data is still the key.  For this reason, the companies that are able to accumulate this will stand a batter chance of outpacing the rest.  Naturally, the compute to process the data is still necessary so we are not talking about something in a vacuum.

In this article we will dig into Tesla's FSD data and how it keeps lapping the market.

# Tesla FSD Miles: The Lead That Is Insurmountable

Tesla is accumulating more miles every quarter.

This is a situation that I believe most are overlooking.  The company is seeking to achieve autonomy with its driving system.

A couple years back, Tesla started to publish the total amount of miles driven using the FSD software.  Each mile is tracked based upon the version of the software that is used.

As an aside, the company is also capturing the miles on vehicles driving out of the factories, which just topped 50K.  

Getting back to the majority of the miles, we are seeing that from vehicles in the wild.

Here was the chart in the earnings pack at the end of the 4th quarter:

 https://img.leopedia.io/DQmQ3nojMEWEVJgBPaYcduDNLS4LNemuMCoFDo2Cjb6gbjA/fsdq4.png 

As of the end of 2024, we saw a total of around 2.9 billion miles.  Compared to the end of the previous quarter, this was an increase of 600 million miles.

Here is where things stood at the end of March, 2025:

 https://img.leopedia.io/DQmQWErs4Q75fZUuLEa2jbUTz8gWa4TZmDxx6vqwE8yBymt/fsdq1.png 

The total is now roughly 3.6 billion.  That is a jump of 700 million over the first quarter.  We have no word whether this includes the miles from China, when the software went live.  So far, Tesla has not mentioned how they handle the data to meet the requirements of the Chinese government.

## The Quest For 6 Billion

Elon Musk forecast that 6 billion miles driven would be required to achieve autonomy.  Based upon that estimate, that number will be reached by the end of the year.  The present rate is closing on 3 billion.

Will the 6 billion be the magic level?  That might be too low.  Even if it is a bit higher, we are looking at the middle of next year to hit greater than 7 billion.

Is it 6 billion? 7 billion? 8 billion?

The exact number is not crucial.  If we are looking at things from a numerical perspective, the number of miles will keep increasing as more vehicles hit the streets.  We also have approval in other news markets, such as the expectation in the EU.  

This is something to watch over the next couple quarters.  Things are getting close.

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