Tesla In Store For A Pullback?

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·@taskmaster4450le·
0.000 HBD
Tesla In Store For A Pullback?
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I will state that long term, I am very bullish on Tesla.  I think this company will be up there with the likes of Amazon by the middle of the next decade.

Of course, everyone knows that no stock goes only in one direction.  Even the most bullish of stories have selloffs periodically.  For those who are traders, it might be a time to take a look at where Tesla is standing.

This is one of the most shorted stocks out there.  The last 3 months saw the shorts hammered as the stock moves up almost 80%.  Personally, I think the short story is about dead since all their arguments are for naught.  The company blasted through a lot of the resistance points in their business model and are moving ahead.

There was a lot of news/announcements that made the shorts eat their lunch.  The biggest, of late, was the opening of the factory in China.  This was culminated by the approval of the "Made In China" by the Chinese government.  That means that Tesla can officially start selling cars in China starting Monday.  While it will not help the quarter, it is a major milestone.

Here is the deal on Tesla.  With a stock that has so many people emotional about it, news becomes an even larger part of the story.  For the next quarter, I see very little that will push things higher.  Thus, as a short-term move, I would expect the downside to receive some attention.  This is definitely the case after such a large move.

The first quarter has only an unannounced battery day, the regular earnings, and, perhaps, some information on the timeline of the Model Y.  On the downside, it is possible U.S. sales suffer a bit of a setback as the tax credit fully expires for the company.  China will surely make up for the loss so it is likely to be a net zero in terms of overall impact.  

Another challenge is the first quarter is traditionally weak.

With the stock above 430, this might be the proper time to take some profits.  I fully expect some shorts to establish positions around here.  With so many looking to recoup some of their losses, it could be some heavy action on the downside.  I would not be surprised to see a pullback to the 380 range.  This stock is the textbook definition of "extended".

Quarter 2 will see the announcement of the first full quarter of production out of the Chinese factory.  This will provide an idea of guidance for the rest of the year which I expect to be good.  The Model Y could well see production starting in that quarter which also will kill the short case.  Hence, I think we are looking at a quarter 1 trade for those interested.

With little to stop the short case in terms of news and the shorts chomping at the bit, I think this is prime for a pullback.

This is an idea only for those who like trading.  Long term holders are still best sticking with what has worked for them.

As always this is not financial advice.

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