## <center> Good day Hiveians!</center>

### <center> Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!</center> 

 
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### Yesterday we looked at the Hive rally and wondered if it had already ended

[In this post](https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@tobetada/crypto-analysis-or-hive-rally-invalidated-or-just-a-pause) I pointed to two red lines for when I would consider the rally invalidated. This was the level of correction (in %) as well as the supporting trend line on the daily chart. So far these lines have not been crossed definitively. 

Today I want to point out a very important metric that is rarely being used in TA. It is very powerful and also very simple: **The Fib Ratios**. While there are several ways in which one can draw fib ratios into a chart, the *Fib Channel* is extremely good for predicting the bottom of a correction. More importantly, it works on *all scales* and can therefore be used for all of the subwaves as well as the main waves of a price movement.

### Let's first look at subwaves

Here we see a subwave running up to about 42 cents and then a correction to 16 cents. It's important to note that when using this technique there are two ways of looking at it: the wicks or the candles or both. I will use a combination here. In this case the wick touched the 0.236 fib ratio before heading higher again:

![grafik.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tobetada/23twAKV15jmf9ebX2TzXCMp593rkymxkPhHeuh5hatbBxXjxjfd2gxWJQz8enXS2RQDMA.png)



And two more examples. You can see that I used the wicks as well the candles here:


![grafik.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tobetada/Eo8ZdC4sCc5H7krWGVETaBq4tgWeSgw8FytQ4aLzFa1ui5kqquTi3WnVFhSQTfnLfrz.png)

It is important to do this only for the **impulse waves**. It does not work very good for when price overall goes into a corrective mode. 

### The bigger waves


Now the bigger subwaves. The bigger wave in 2021 went to about $1 and then headed back to around 16 cents. This is in the red area of the 0.236 ratio:


![grafik.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tobetada/Eos7B3kUNxiCKFgny5TKrqSwKaCJH52bBWRyQooAmGCMH5tGVKQS15su9oEBZRBLzCU.png)


The biggest fractal we have is the whole wave starting from 2021 and ending (?) in 2022/3:


![grafik.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tobetada/EoyVMSXp8DbvZHTK8xbgAVsL9eWXX4QvcEC4uEoyk5q4TUwCYDu4TAHARsWnjVWv98Q.png)

Here we see that it played out perfectly: the whole wave went to around $3.4 and then back to 25 cents which is *exactly* at the bottom of the 0.236 fib ratio. 

### Conclusion

Somehow I forgot to look at the fib channel for Hive, especially for the largest wave. Seeing that price corrected back to exactly this level where historically it has always recovered I am quite confident that 25 cents was indeed the bottom. If so, the rally I talked about will continue, but at a slower pace. 

If we apply this technique to the current subwave we also see that price will probably continue downward until about 32-34 cents before recovering. I think this time price will only touch the top red area since it also coincides with a trend line here and should find support:


![grafik.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tobetada/23u6Yyrabpo5NenDxU3Tn2RjrjsHJ9DxcANzwkSRNvG7Ssbz1QDZRpYZz9LzNctu61obj.png)


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*As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!*


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