http://storage4.static.itmages.ru/i/18/0411/h_1523473343_2987092_bea79d55f4.jpg

 On April 6, the US announced new sanctions against oligarchs close to Putin.  24 people and 14 companies were subject to sanctions.  The reason was a chemical attack in Syria.  Then on Friday this did not cause turmoil in the Russian markets. 

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 But further, the congressmen began to draft a bill banning purchases of Russian debt securities.  This led to the collapse of the ruble, the fall of the index of Russian securities on the Moscow stock exchange. 

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 Capitalization of the largest Russian companies owned by oligarchs associated with Putin fell by 18 billion dollars in two days.  

# The Iskander is no longer ridiculous to

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 The United States and earlier imposed sanctions against Russian companies and individuals, but this only aroused sarcasm in Russia and did not lead to a collapse of the ruble and apparent severe consequences.  What has changed now?  What is the difference? 

 The fact is that people close to Putin are not oligarchs at all.  These are either people entering the first circle, who are in fact complicit in an organized criminal group.  They sit on black money, deal with their control, do not produce additional property, but very often cause significant damage to the Russian economy in favor of a thief's hostel. 

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 Earlier, US sanctions concerned precisely these people, they only strengthened their positions in the eyes of the thieves' gang.  Another thing is the second round, which is absolutely illegitimately called oligarchs. 

 The oligarch is an alloy of private property and political power.  In Russia, there are no such people.  Here conditional private property or as it is beautifully called political science quasi-public property.  It is not private or public, it is between.  

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Whom it does not belong to, this property is controlled by an organized criminal group that seized power in the country.  

That public corporations that large private companies have for this reason conditional possession.  Deripaska applies conditionally to the second circle of persons close to Putin and has a conditional possession of his property exactly as long as the owner allows him.  His business is quite effective, for the use of property, he dedicates money to a thief's hostel.  

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These black money, according to the US, are used to finance their offices in the East of Ukraine, private military companies in Syria, the development and use of chemical weapons, interference in US elections and the destabilization of democracies in Europe.

  That is why the blow, this time was inflicted on the huge working bees of a criminal hostel.  And it had certain consequences. 

#  Not everything is gold that glitters

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 According to Andrei Movchan (https://carnegie.ru/commentary/76017), the panic in the markets in Russia is too exaggerated.  And I absolutely agree with him.  The dependence of new sanctions and fluctuations in the ruble's exchange rate is rather weak.  In fact, an attack on aluminum supplies is a tribute to Trump to his constituents. 

 Cheap aluminum from Russia makes its production in the US not profitable.  The introduction of sanctions led to an increase in the price of it on world markets and the emergence of a window of opportunity for American producers.  But such a US policy can not be applied to all groups of goods.  Most likely, the next will be steel producers. 

 Sechin and Miller inflict such damage upon Russia that it is more profitable for the states to continue it than imposing sanctions on oil and gas.  Gas condensate can get under US sanctions, it competes with the US.  But without natural gas, Europe will have severe problems in the heating season, because 30% of the gas it receives from Russia.

  Last summer, Germany signed an agreement on the construction of a gas pipeline through Turkey for the pumping of cheap Azerbaijani gas to Europe.  After the completion of its construction, with increased supplies of liquefied gas from the US, Europe will significantly reduce dependence on Russian natural gas.  But this will happen in a few years.  

But Europeans can abandon Russian oil completely painlessly, its deliveries are rather considerably diversified.  The US economy depends on the supply of titanium and nickel from Russia.Russia is actually a raw material appendage of the planet, and as a result of aggressive policies and sanctions, it is increasingly becoming a raw material appendage of China. 

 This determines the nature of the complete dependence of the Russian economy on international markets.  And even from China, Russia imports high-tech goods with a large added value, which aggravates the dependence in a geometric progression.  That is why Putin can do nothing with sanctions, except to stop the war in Syria, in the East of Ukraine, to return the Crimea and stop interfering in the affairs of Western democracies. 

 The US has the strongest economy in the world, can afford to drown Russia in the swamp for as long as necessary and in a variety of ways.  But the need for titanium and nickel, Europe's dependence on Russian natural gas is unlikely to lead to a cut-off from SWIFT. 

#  The main reason for the painful reaction of Russian markets 

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According to Dmitry Golubovsky, analyst of the FY Kalita-Finance, the country's risk became the country's risk.  Russia's support for Assad, who uses chemical weapons from time to time, apparently from old Russian stocks in violation of the ban by an international convention, causes country risks against Russia. 

 So two senators are going to submit for consideration the bill on the prohibition of the placement of Russia's debt securities on the stock markets.  30% of these securities were in the hands of foreign buyers. 

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 Needless to say, they began to get rid of them and / or insure risks from owning them.  The time spent in the papers began to decline.  This process caused the collapse of the ruble.  And it will continue for some time, and the fever in the Russian securities markets, and fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate will continue until a new equilibrium of the market is found after the withdrawal of foreigners from the debt securities of the Russian state. 

 # Who has benefited from the depreciation of the ruble 

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From the fall of the course the Kremlin won.  Now the cost of all budget obligations as of April 12, 2018 was reduced by 10%.  That is, the budget, giving away wages to the population of Russia, will save 10%. 

https://scontent-arn2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/30594539_354064611751370_7202118706044862464_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=05c3239060b978af5a3fe2f0e10d1989&oe=5B665DE8

 But the population (not citizens) will pay another 10% of their salaries for the aggressive policy of the Kremlin.  Virtually everything that is in stores, or imported, or produced on imported equipment, so manufacturers and retailers are sure to raise wages for goods and services by 10%.  Salaries are unlikely to raise Putin to anyone.

https://scontent-frx5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/30516068_564537630611435_6272165025540997120_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=78386ba5d09377acbe252aedd3326ea3&oe=5B661307

  Since the population of Russia does not consist of citizens, due to non-participation in the governance of the country, it will pay further for the aggressive policy of the Kremlin, for all managerial failures, militarism, etc., and so on.

https://www.facebook.com/RussiaWithoutPutin/videos/1590808537700513/

https://censoru.net/26103-kompaniya-rossiyskogo-oligarha-deripaski-okazalas-na-grani-defolta-iz-za-sankciy-ssha.html