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Once news of Steemit Inc's risky financial situation, many asked me how I could still be bullish on STEEM price long term. Some people brought forth the analogy of dot bomb era companies going broke during the tech bear of 2000. My answer was simple: As long as over long term support (17 cents), I am bullish, below, I am not.

I can name one big fundamental reason for STEEM decoupling from the fate of STEEMIT:

STEEM is not STEEMIT. STEEM is the decentralized blockchain. STEEMIT is only one participant in the STEEM blockchain. Arguably, the company is a very  important participant. However, the beauty of blockchain is its open source nature that offers the ability for non hostile takeover. Watch developments in the  Ether Classic community for this potential in action. 

We're seeing this nature in action, as witnesses and users look for solutions to this challenge.

In my opinion, these sorts of events are necessary for blockchain's maturity. If worth its weight, blockchain facilitates non-traditional business and economic models. Let Steemit Inc be challenged, and let the community prove blockchain's potential, or fail trying. By this we learn. 

But I don't trade based on fundamentals but use the Elliott Wave Theory, a theory that says sentiment moves markets i mathematical patterns, and that successful investors and traders must make decisions against crowd sentiment. Elliott wrote that in Wave 2's you see the worst of news. Paraphrased, you'll see market players 'falling all over themselves' to give a reason something will fail in a wave 2. While I don't know for sure whether STEEM will survive, it is over support. 

Further, as FUD continued to grow, STEEM has staged a nice rally. Some  selling into this decline may have bottomed ticked it. Only time will tell whether it will hold, but this highlights the problem with trading based on emotions, or as we say on Elliott Wave Trader 'participating in sentiment, instead of observing it'. 

I need to see STEEM rally  to $4 to say with much higher probability that a bottom is in. However, I can say is it has run much farther, when judged by fib extensions, compared to most charts I am tracking. It has moved to the 138.2% extension off the 1-2 setup shown. Bitcoin, Ether, Litecoin, and many others have had trouble even getting to the 61.8% extension. If we can see a move to the 200% extensions 65 cents, we'll have a classic bottom pattern complete, and we can expect another rally after a corrective phase in ii. I have a projection off that ii to that $4 I am looking for. 

So, STEEM traders and users must be patient. STEEM is not out of the woods. Yet, in the face of FUD it has moved in very bullish fashion off the lows. 

![STEEMUSD - Primary Analysis - Jan-23 0606 AM (15 min).png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmcENGNPjw6hzbRRzorrPGLai2nnCbjDtfDeLhUaDhPP7M/STEEMUSD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Jan-23%200606%20AM%20(15%20min).png)


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