Technical Analysis on Bitcoin: Small win, but we're not out of the woods

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·@workin2005·
0.000 HBD
Technical Analysis on Bitcoin: Small win, but we're not out of the woods
![Screen Shot 2018-06-12 at 5.48.37 PM.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbZbJR15Xnrb97WhXer8MyhAz5NQuH8XHXjyCPoqxqigM/Screen%20Shot%202018-06-12%20at%205.48.37%20PM.png)

I mentioned yesterday we were seeing indications of a trend reversal..at least in the short term. While I'd love to tell you we've seen the bottom of this bearish run, I'm not convinced we have. That said, we MAY at see a temporary rise in the short term. Let's take a look at where we might be heading...

Looking at the 1 day chart, we can see bitcoin is still well below the 8 day EMA. This makes it clear there's still a LONG way to go before we can declare the start of a bull run.

![Screen Shot 2018-06-14 at 7.53.00 PM.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVuWJ9c1xiCKAwoHnwQtkqLbBsLJHLgE8xf8pDhyBhVj6/Screen%20Shot%202018-06-14%20at%207.53.00%20PM.png)

The 4 hour MACD has crossed into bullish territory, with no sign of reversing. 

![Screen Shot 2018-06-14 at 5.47.40 PM.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTYaVimJAnqT68pff9P3yWhKzjmdcN6icsEVFytaWkcQ5/Screen%20Shot%202018-06-14%20at%205.47.40%20PM.png)

The 1 day Stoch RSI is very oversold and has plenty of room to rise. 

![Screen Shot 2018-06-14 at 5.33.50 PM.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRk9sFgaVsGpvAdgHijTqxShf1Wdab6UXn2ECi3EQaqCn/Screen%20Shot%202018-06-14%20at%205.33.50%20PM.png)

The 1 day MACD is showing clear bullish divergence. This also suggests we still have more upside coming. 

![Screen Shot 2018-06-14 at 5.40.53 PM.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmS9ppeqGa9kX6je1LCUi2R7ytXMaArHn96j7PuWj5LKzv/Screen%20Shot%202018-06-14%20at%205.40.53%20PM.png)

My primary count is the same as it was yesterday. I believe we've completed 5 waves down, and now are in an ABC correction. If wave "A" can penetrate the 0.236 fib (about $7K), I believe it'll likely reach the 0.382 fib level ($7,600).  If not, this temporary rise will be short lived. Here's how it may play out:

![Screen Shot 2018-06-14 at 6.21.44 PM.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUKJJRCgU37KfkN2kYyeoY7nAi2Zo2MDvqh3HtJVPBC1g/Screen%20Shot%202018-06-14%20at%206.21.44%20PM.png)

Sometimes it's easy to get caught up in the trees and miss the forest. Zooming out on the 1 day, we can find a larger bullish count. With the recent drop, a clear bullish falling wedge has formed. 

![Screen Shot 2018-06-14 at 5.04.11 PM.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRCtuA3F6gV2PS1kEXP6mkctgUzdbCDvfFFTEoXq8o21L/Screen%20Shot%202018-06-14%20at%205.04.11%20PM.png)
![Screen Shot 2018-06-14 at 5.00.35 PM.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdEpVgkE5g2wZ3ZUPbcKrcM5NaKBVyhZzNGHCCBsuk37R/Screen%20Shot%202018-06-14%20at%205.00.35%20PM.png)

We can count an ABCDE correction within that falling wedge. If this count is accurate, here's how it could play out. 

![Screen Shot 2018-06-14 at 7.14.11 PM.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWnxjzExTMgSX6ChFet5TNL8imEzP4Q79JiLsKKH7QeBT/Screen%20Shot%202018-06-14%20at%207.14.11%20PM.png)

There's still a long way to go before the bullish count is validated. I very well could consolidate sideways before making any major move.

The 1 Day RSI is operating within a wedge. A break above the wedge would be a very bullish indication. 

![Screen Shot 2018-06-14 at 5.56.30 PM.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdXjL63FVeg5VQbDuErE7NmNdN5smqBJnEfR4KcAF2MGm/Screen%20Shot%202018-06-14%20at%205.56.30%20PM.png)
 
The 4 hour RSI has been operating under a strong descending resistance. If it can break above this resistance, I'd be a signifiant win for the bulls, and could indicate a trend change. 

![Screen Shot 2018-06-14 at 6.00.12 PM.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmaoERhJ596fbRkkrsAEZuoxYP82dBYHxWQ1xa6gqce3bF/Screen%20Shot%202018-06-14%20at%206.00.12%20PM.png)

The key areas of resistance (trend lines) we need to keep an eye on, are listed here: 

![Screen Shot 2018-06-14 at 5.31.12 PM.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbDSFMWEpWYdA2EE1P8p7jcTymGnUNkvr8xTmMpXFrjfp/Screen%20Shot%202018-06-14%20at%205.31.12%20PM.png)

Bitcoin must break above that third trend line before we can even start to think about the start of a bull run. 

Let's see how the rest of the week unfolds. 

**BIAS:**
Short Term: Neutral
Longterm: Very Bullish 

**I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Thanks for stopping by.**

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