https://www.ecestaticos.com/imagestatic/clipping/62e/321/62e321dc8320d30319f2e542004d2621/papa-es-normal-que-caiga-tanto-el-bitcoin.jpg?mtime=1517764324

When it's your little boy who asks you that question ... something is not right. First, to indicate that I should be a bit confused lately among so many articles, Telegram groups, conferences and various activities on cryptoactives. What started as a research activity and commitment to a new paradigm, is moving to the family environment and there is no dinner or visit of friends where the words bitcoin, ether, dash or Blockchain do not appear. And with a beginning of the year like we have had, I do not even want to tell you. In the second place, so much perceived noise indicates that we may already be on another scale regarding the adoption of bitcoin and other cryptoactives. And that has its implications in the price and in the future.

First of all, we have gone from a phase of euphoria marked by the FOMO (fear of missing the rise) that really covered all of 2017, to a period of pessimism and FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubts) in what we have been in 2018 The tether case has helped to promote this uncertainty and we will have to be attentive to the resolution. In this time and from the maximum reached by bitcoin (and the rest of cryptoactive), the fall has been considerable and has spread to all this crypto, causing that, in terms of capitalization (not to be confused with that of an action) , you have lost about 50% of it in a month. Graph in logarithmic scale.

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/e67MH3_EXknvr8D0NEDWFEB0mu3BW8UF9SKMYH84zF3ToUtagKI_mZciumN1Sddj1wGTBfBNpcDv10I1_CMIs9tDsWRePZcERnZKBlI-R6u5zBppeDOQk7vjoLPbd2TCwG6jkF90mPEBjTdu6A

However, and answering the question that not only my son has asked me lately, the answer is that it is totally normal that these assets have corrected so strongly. There is nothing abnormal except the ignorance of who has entered in search of easy and fast money that, suddenly and without warning, has been with sharp falls in 30 days. I have not tired of repeating that, when an asset has a daily volatility of 7%, having falls of 20% in that time is within the probable. Another thing is that greed and greed for making money make many speculate with hope and faith, instead of with knowledge and caution. But an asset that has a 140% annual volatility tells you that you can lose 100% of your investment in that period.

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/21q9lFqkjvfaWBh0dCbku3S9-G6-gH5ypaMl-R-i0tvYH8t3PORHXTHJMz46qoe1YiHHltrDfQP-iQ-ijkzQ56ncICSfQcvj95I0TIbxx863FMlIWZ8V9EwWkL9Z4AXtk4If77H6bhbz7ds2ZQ

Since I have more or less serious knowledge about bitcoin, the word bubble has always been linked to it. The periods of hikes have followed strong, rapid and widespread falls that can show that relationship. If we take the period between 2013 and 2015 for example, the arrival of speculators makes us attend several of these phases. These moments of euphoria, increase of the interest of investors and explosion of price take place indeed. However, after the post-impulse consolidation phase, notice how the price never falls below the previous minimums. Graphics of price and number of searches in Google.

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/nbFtPXZHXOCU5DCpNNa-Kp2DHBEkXlkvUt7B1wH4es9P1zxSrlARbpiwjJx96mw5VG76wnDsdfGitOG5lVnWnhR9OKZ6SGyfBj40uZn2wkQ6a3T3vjLL6hOvyrVJauTV03Np12qcrjelK1xwxQ

And applying the same idea to the period 2015 until 2018, we have the same increase in participants and speculators with increases in prices and interest and return to the lower area. If this theory were true, see falls to 2,000 or 3,000 USD in the case of bitcoin could occur relatively easily and the asset remain in an upward situation. Or all the opposite ...

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/t5yuTTqFCTgWK1ZgxO-cs1sQi1kfxxPiqiA2oRUswPl0Ezphzr1iNtlN-oECgOZR_ngAUY4xRMRAt3rmw6sdZ7eazjGdsHm9YaruYvMF8wXTGtSjOmsk9KAcCrFxZkfSNXBqr5I0B3PsWST0nA

A speculator who has simply observed volatility and behavior to date may, so easily, understand that it is indeed within the possibility that the bitcoin falls as has happened in this last month. Another thing is that you have the capacity to maintain the position and that you have understood what your risk was from the beginning.

However, it would not seem serious for me to ask a question of my son in such a simple way and it is convenient to try to go into more details. When we talk about bitcoin we talk about Blockchain, because technology and 'token' are united in what would be a whole.