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>Throw out enough predictions and one is bound to be right.

*Right?*


![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tarazkp/23vsZ1HEA7JwjMJmsnRdQrf56rtNpYWjaAyPqvvhg9GjYyh8LEmC68Mewtw7dT8eZ9s1F.png)


I don't speculate that much about the price of things openly, but I do throw the odd attempt into a chat with a few friends to test the waters. I have no idea how to read charts or anything like that, but sometimes I get a "feel" that something is going to happen  - though it is 50/50 whether it is going to happen upwards, or happen downwards - so it isn't very useful.

Last night I felt upward.

![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tarazkp/23tRvWwSyUXaBgBeVLQMupQ187iZ4ynuczzonf1dsoS1WZ4PvVMh9wDoZokbVAYjFien7.png)


![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tarazkp/23swg9rTTQhNsSFwqmJkJxvZg3oFHeVDghWgz9R8c8wEcfCvnxtwbdLBgndw9dvuaBgwX.png)

Not too bad!



![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tarazkp/23swfuL1zDbY8PJ9wKj4571vFcycKF8q5dFcCDAdM58BUSpNAT8JHv2rb92thhVRoQymM.png)

While this is the first time Bitcoin has broken 30K USD since the start of June last year, it also represents an almost 100% increase since the low at the tail of 2022. Which is quite a significant gain on Bitcoin and will likely see more in the future, which will flow into other cryptos too - as ships are lifted on the tide. 

None of this really matters though, unless you bought enough at the dip or hold enough Bitcoin or other cryptos anyway. So, while the media is talking about it breaking through the critical barriers, most people reading that headline, *don't actually hold any crypto.* And, they likely haven't been encouraged to hold any, because the media has been conveniently relatively silent on it for the last six months, after fudding for the six months prior due to the FTX scandals. 

It is definitely a "DYOR" investment, because *no one* (especially the media) is going to give you objective advice, because they are too invested - either in loving crypto or hating it. 

>Noticed that?

There aren't too many who take a middle-road approach on crypto and instead, it is all very polarized with people who are head over heels in love, or hate it more than Pepsi hates Coke. This means that both sides are likely in a poor investor mindset, however one side is still willing *to invest.* So, while they run the risk of losing what they put in, they also run the risk of what they put in paying off massively. 

>Which side do you want to be on? 

It is interesting, because while most crypto enthusiasts recognize that the fiat system is heavily flawed and will likely collapse at some point, they are also obligated through life to still be a part of it. This means that crypto people have a hedged position, whether they like it or not. However, the people who hate crypto and therefore don't own any, are betting that the fiat economy is going to survive and even thrive. If it does, all is well for them, but if it declines, they can lose everything. It is funny because it is the crypto people who are seen as the crazy investors, when in actual fact, it is the "all eggs in one basket" people of the current economic situation that are actually the least diversified.

For me, I have feet in both world like most people ere, where I live a fiat life through my jobs, retirement contributions, housing and what not, but my investments are mostly in crypto. This is risky, because if crypto fails I  don't have investments to fall back on, but it is a calculated risk, where I assume I will be able to find employment to make ends meet in the fiat world, if everything goes to hell. And, if everything goes to hell in crypto, it is likely that the global fiat economy is going to be struggling too, which will mean that even if I had investments there, they would be similarly impacted. 

I definitely don't have enough in crypto to feel that I *have enough* in crypto, but I am trying to slowly gather more when I can and hopefully, the "tide" will lift what I do hold. If it is a significant lift, it will be fine and perhaps at some point, I would take a little out to put into the fiat world. Not to invest into fiat-backed assets, but physical assets, like an investment property or clearing the mortgage. 

Being debt-free would be a huge mitigating factor, because it means less of an employment income is required to make ends meet. Other than being completely financially secure, a good situation would be being able to cover the costs of living with a very basic job, like stacking shelves or flipping burgers. This would mean that anything above that would be disposable income and I back myself not to have to flip burgers again. 

>But, who knows!

*Would they hire me to flip burgers?*
<sub>I used to be very good at it.</sub>

The last years have been hard on my family and the last couple have had some unwelcome challenges on top, which has made me even more determined to ensure that my family is okay. There are no guarantees in life and while we can predict what we think will happen, more often than not, we are proven wrong. From a financial perspective however, there is one thing that is certain.

>Gotta have skin in the game.

It doesn't matter if you are for or against crypto, all the speculation is academic only, if there is no actual holdings. When there are people arguing against crypto who have no investments in the fiat economy, what does that actually tell you? If they are struggling to understand how to make the current economy work for them, what are the chances of them understanding an emerging industry?

But, I am someone who thinks that stacking shelves is a worthwhile job. So don't listen to me.

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]


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